partial lifting of US oil sanctions and rapprochements with the government of Nicolás Maduro, release of prisoners, political agreements: the last few days were very busy in Venezuela.
After suddenly reactivating the negotiation process frozen since November 2022, the government and the opposition signed a surprising agreement that unleashed a chain reaction less than a year before the presidential elections, which must be held in the second half of 2024 with international observation .
Here are three keys to understand the situation.
Petroleum
Shocking announcement: almost four years after the embargo that the United States imposed on Venezuelan oil, it authorized the purchase of crude oil, gas and gold for six months, a license that could be extended if its expectations are met.
Venezuela will now be able to collect petrodollars “without using the black market“, he explained to AFP Francisco Monaldi, specialist at the Baker Institute. “This can mean a very significant increase in revenue for the government.” of Ripewho is seeking re-election.
The expert, however, clarifies that the impact is limited by the country’s limited capacity to increase its production, which does not reach 800,000 barrels per day.
It is a breath of fresh air for the Caribbean country, mired in an economic crisis that saw GDP fall 80% in the last 10 years and left the majority of the population living in poverty.
Francisco Rodríguezan economist specialized in oil, points out that “is not easy” the return of Venezuela to the US market, since creditors in that country could try to embargo its exports.
The flexibility, analysts agree, also has to do with the context of pressure on crude oil due to tensions in the Middle East, both in the producing countries and in the supply routes (Suez Canal and Persian Gulf).
The situation was already tense due to the war in Ukraine, and had generated contacts between Maduro and Washington.
Crude oil prices fell on Thursday after the announced relief.
Disabled and imprisoned
Coincidence? The agreement was signed in Barbados days before the opposition primaries next Sunday, which will define Maduro’s rival.
The document includes a clause respecting the process, organized in races without support from the electoral authority and under constant threat from Chavismo.
But María Corina Machado, from the most radical wing and favorite to win, is disqualified from holding public office and in theory could not face Maduro in 2024.
The United States conditioned the lifting of the embargo on compliance “commitments” as the creation of “specific processes for the accelerated qualification of all candidates“said the head of US diplomacy, Antony Blinken.
Blinken He also called for the release of “all US citizens and Venezuelan political prisoners unjustly detained” in this country investigated at the ICC for crimes against humanity.
On Wednesday night, the government released five imprisoned politicians, who activists consider are being used as bargaining chips in these circumstances. Among them, former deputy Juan Requesens, convicted of an assassination attempt against Maduro in 2018, and journalist Roland Carreño, collaborator of the exiled leader Juan Guaido and accused of conspiracy.
As of October 10, there were 273 political prisoners, according to the NGO Foro Penal.
US and UN
“Let’s turn the page, rebuild a relationship of respect and cooperation“Maduro asked the United States, which he normally blames for all of his country’s ills.
In the midst of the war situation, Washington has privileged “realpolitik” towards Caracas, according to a diplomatic source.
It is not only the energy approach of these historic trade partners.
There is also the agreement to allow the United States to deport Venezuelan migrants on direct flights, an issue that is becoming a thorn in the president’s side. Joe Biden in the middle of the campaign for re-election in 2024.
Hence, the rapprochement with Caracas should not have a negative electoral impact for the Democratic president, according to Luis Angarita, a specialist in international law.
The United Nations, for its part, announced this Thursday the creation of the trust fund with Venezuelan resources frozen abroad, which it will manage and dedicate to social programs. The fund was agreed upon at the dialogue table in November 2022 and was a roadblock in the process until now.
Source: Gestion
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