The worst of the Chinese real estate crisis is not yet over, according to a survey by JPMorgan between Chinese and international investors.
China’s real estate problems have continued to worsen in recent weeks, and large developers such as Country Garden and the state-owned company But Ocean They have been on the verge of falling into a default similar to that of Evergrande.
“As expected, most investors are pessimistic“, stated the analysts of JPMorgan in a summary of the survey published on Friday and conducted for the first time by the investment bank.
55% of participants believed that the market was “still at the lowest point” of the crisis, and only 26% thought that the worst was over. They added that there were no major discrepancies between the opinions of Chinese and international investors.
About 60% of respondents expect companies’ share prices to rise in the next three months.
The “ineffective policy responses” were considered the biggest concern, followed by a repercussion on the banking system, a double drop in real estate sales and a significant collapse in house prices.
Respondents remain unconvinced that recent support measures are enough to stabilize the situation. Just over 40% have a “neutral opinion” on whether these easing measures will boost real estate sales in the next 3-6 months.
Looking ahead, only 17% expect that Beijing offer a very strong stimulus, while the majority, that is, 65%, expect regional or local governments to gradually increase aid.
Source: Gestion
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