Venezuela, a blind race towards crucial primaries

Venezuela drives blindly towards some primaries crucial decisions that will define, on October 22, the presidential candidate of the oppositiona race that seems dark and definitive for the political future of the nation that, analysts say, is waking up from its electoral lethargy, even with more doubts than certainties.

The budding search for the anti-Chavista presidential candidate advances to the extent that it becomes clearer who the favorite candidates are and what are the obstacles they will have to overcome, although there is a multiplicity of threats -inside and outside the opposition- that prevent making projections about the result of the contest.

This is what political analysts Luis Vicente León and Griselda Colina believe, who agreed that the opposition -more divided than ever- needs to unite and speak truthfully to Venezuelans to capitalize on discontent, after years of crisis, and to grow the mood of recent days, when anti-Chavista rallies were seen in the streets again.

A complex landscape

Although 13 candidates for the primaries registered, in the opinion of León, president of the polling company Datanálisis, only three are “real candidates” in terms of popular support: ex-deputy María Corina Machado, ex-governor Henrique Capriles and ex-legislator Carlos Prósperi, well “everyone else is below 1% support.”

Machado and Capriles are disqualified from holding public office due to the opinion of the Comptroller, which leaves Prósperi, the least favorite of the three, with some possibility of a negotiation, something that -assured the expert- will happen inexorably within anti-Chavismo. and between them and the government of Nicolás Maduro.

The disabled “They are fundamentally symbolic political struggle actors but they cannot be real candidates” for the Presidency, so if they stay in the race and one of them wins, “the primary would not be producing the opposition candidate”, stressed.

This, he continued, opens up endless possibilities, among which he mentioned that the winner of the inmates become the elector of the presidential candidate, a bizarre outcome that is not contemplated in the statutes of the National Primary Commission (CNP) nor has it been informing the voters of this.

“The primary uncertainties about the subject are infinitely greater than the certainties at this time,” insisted.

challenges everywhere

As if the anxiety of the presidential candidates were not enough, the very development of the primaries contains several unanswered questions, such as where the people will vote, something that the CNP has not defined, while the institutions, all close to the Government, give “paws” to harm the process, or so Colina, substitute electoral rector, sees it.

The journalist, who is part of the acting board of the National Electoral Council (CNE), believes that the disqualifications and the recent dissolution of the electoral entity are government maneuvers to “divert from the electoral route” to the opposition, which for years called for abstention, and for it to think that voting “It’s useless.”

“It has aroused electoral enthusiasm in the country (…) and an emotion for the electoral issue that had faded. Who is it convenient for the majority of the country to express itself through the vote? To those of us who want a peaceful change, and the majority of the country wants a peaceful change”Hill said.

This idea is endorsed by León, who summarizes the electoral strategy of Chavismo, in power since 1999, with two verbs: “divide and abstain.”

But, for that 70% of opponents that exist -according to Datanálisis- to put an end to Chavismo, it is necessary “size expectations” and “speak to the country with the truth”a task that falls mainly on the primary candidates who must tell voters that the presidential, unless a political agreement emerges, will not be an election “competitive”.

Furthermore, in a country with a sui generis policy, anything could happen.

“In Venezuela, everything is possible, and the closer the event and the situation to which we approach, that is where the situations will occur. In this country things happen rapidly, and many things, so it is very risky to say today what is going to happen “concludes Hill.

Within these infinite probabilities, there is room for new disqualifications, promotions and demotions of candidacies, divisions and unions both in Chavismo and in the opposition and the free drawing that the so-called independents add up, many of them accused of being financed by the Government.

Thus, with a view to 2024 and despite the unpopularity that, according to León, Chavismo has earned, to think that Maduro would be “unable to win an election” it’s a “mistake”since there are numerous factors that, if aligned, would allow the president to be re-elected without stealing a vote.

Source: EFE