The risk of the Earth colliding with an asteroid in 2046 is reduced

Astronomers recently discovered that a asteroid the size of an Olympic swimming pool could collide with the Land in 2046, the day of Valentine’s Daybut the probability of a collision, very low, was further reduced, it was reported on Tuesday.

The asteroid, baptized “2023 DW”, measures 50 meters in diameter and was detected for the first time on February 26 by a Chilean observatory.

The American (NASA) and European (ESA) space agencies classified it at the head of objects considered potentially dangerous, since its theoretical trajectory passed close enough to the planet.

Calculations anticipated that the collision would occur on February 14, 2046, Valentine’s Day. The newspapers even opened with the news and advised the lovers to cancel all their projects.

At the end of February, the probability of a collision was estimated at one in 847. Subsequent calculations of the trajectory had raised the risk on Sunday to 1 possibility in 432, but more detailed observations and analysis of its orbit set the probability of impact at 1 on Tuesday. between 1,584, said Richard Moissl, head of ESA’s planetary defense office.

A probability that will be reduced “with each observation, down to zero in a few days at the latest”he added.

His counterpart at NASA, Lindley Johnson, insisted that “Right now, no one should worry”.

According to him, it is quite common for collision forecasts to increase in the days after a new asteroid is discovered.

What would happen if 2023 DW finally collided with Earth?

The extent of the damage would depend on the composition of the celestial body, the experts emphasize.

If it is made up of a set of rubble, the scenario that could occur would resemble that of the Tunguska fireball in Siberia in 1908.

That year there was a huge explosion attributed to the fall of an asteroid, recalls Davide Farnocchia, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL).

The celestial object, the same size as 2023 DW, would have exploded in the atmosphere, crushing trees over a sparsely populated area of ​​about 2,000 km2.

But the asteroid could also be a “solid piece of iron”, like the one that created the huge Barringer crater in Arizona 50,000 years ago, according to Richard Moissl.

In both cases, due to its size, the asteroid would only cause “localized damage”without impact for the rest of the planet, assures the expert.

If it were to collide with the planet in 2046, its speed would be 15 km per second, that is, 54,000 km/h, according to calculations.

there would be a 70% It was likely to hit the Pacific Ocean, but it could also hit the United States, Australia, or Southeast Asia.

Experts stress, however, that it is possible to protect yourself against such a threat. Last year, in the first planetary defense test, the US DART probe deliberately crashed into the asteroid Dimorphosabout 11 million kilometers from Earth, and managed to divert its trajectory.

“The DART mission assures us that such a mission would be successful”insists Davide Farnocchia. “There is plenty of time” to prepare, specifically 23 years “concludes Moissl.

Source: AFP