How will the war in Ukraine end? A question with a difficult answer

Russia he wanted a lightning victory when launching his invasion of Ukrainebut twelve months later the war it stalls with neither side making military advances nor willing to a ‘status quo’ solution.

Analysts fear that the conflict unleashed by the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022 will not end anytime soon and that its intensity will increase in its second year.

“It certainly shows no signs of being near the end”says Jon Alterman of the US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

“Each party feels that time is on their side and that reaching an agreement now is a mistake”add.

After some recent successes in the eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, the Russian side may be preparing a spring offensive, experts believe.

Meanwhile, Ukraine appears determined to regain lost territory, aided by the United States and European governments, whose support for kyiv appears to be growing.

He even made clear his intention to recover the Crimean peninsula, in the Black Sea, which Russia annexed in 2014, an ambition that aroused suspicion in the West.

Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron told his Ukrainian counterpart Volodimir Zelensky that he was “Determined to help Ukraine achieve victory.”

A “good enough” victory?

But that doesn’t mean the war ends with a clear Russian defeat, according to Liana Fix of the US think tank Council on Foreign Relations.

“The most likely scenario is that Ukrainian gains lead to a ‘good enough’ victory”followed by “Continuous fighting in some territories”while Russia tries to keep Crimea, he adds.

The Russian army could mobilize large numbers of new soldiers, but they would have to be trained, fed and equipped, tasks it has done “very bad so far”it states.

The type of weapons Ukraine gets from its Western allies will be decisive, according to Dimitri Minic of the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri).

Long-range artillery could allow you “break the attack-counter-defense cycle, weaken Russia’s ability to recover and win a decisive victory”esteem.

For the expert, a victory “strategic” for kyiv could consist of “divide in two the deployment of the Russian army in the Ukraine through Zaporizhia” (southeast).

But even when Ukraine inflicted a heavy defeat on the Russian army by recapturing Kherson (south), Moscow did not give up, he warns.

“They will do anything”

“The Russians will do anything, including mobilizing without limit and impoverishing their entire country if necessary, to keep the territories occupied and continue their conquests.”according to Minic.

Although it says that “It’s too soon”Alterman imagines several scenarios: from Moscow “consolidating some conquests” until “a leadership transition in Russia that ends the war”going by “some kind of truce.”

But neither side seems to really want to negotiate for now.

Zelensky presented a 10-point peace plan that includes Russia’s recognition of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the withdrawal of its troops.

For the Ifri expert, Russia could accept “temporarily” the independence of Ukraine and even a pro-European Union and pro-NATO power in kyiv, but “in exchange for recognition of Russian conquests in the Ukraine.”

However, this is a red line that kyiv will never cross, according to experts.

nuclear threat

Another uncertainty concerns nuclear weapons and their possible role in the next phase of the war.

Russia made a thinly veiled threat about the use of atomic weapons early in the conflict.

Although it was a “bluff”according to Fix, this scenario could become a “very serious possibility” if Ukraine manages to recover Crimea, Minic says.

If it gets to that point, internal dissent in Russia could erupt due to fears of nuclear war and because the use of nuclear weapons could be perceived as revealing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s weakness, according to the expert.

In addition, Putin is seen as facing pressure inside Russia, but from a more hardline faction led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner militia.

Upcoming elections could have a huge influence on the future of the war, including the legislative elections in Ukraine in October and the US presidential election in 2024.

For this year, US support is assured, but congressional approval of a new aid program for Ukraine is not certain, according to Fix.

Some allied governments in Europe could face voter fatigue and political opposition against the war if it drags on.

“It will be more difficult to explain why this war continues”according to the expert of the Council on Foreign Relations, for whom Ukraine is forced to register “important advances”.

Source: AFP