How the war in Ukraine changed world geopolitics?

The russian invasion of Ukraine changed a year ago world orderaccelerating fractures of the globalizationand promoted its re-foundation based on a logic of blocks with Russia in the Chinese orbit and Europe in the American one.

supremacy and blocks

The war increased the tension and accelerated the march towards the consolidation of large blocs around Beijing and Washington.

Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Balkans, Africa, the Indo-Pacific… Various regions are the scene of silent influence struggles -economic, military or diplomatic- between powers such as China, the European Union, the United States, Russia or Turkey.

The conflict weakened Russia’s position in its former Central Asian republics, for example, and gave Turkey great diplomatic opportunities.

For the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, “Everything is a weapon: energy, data, infrastructure, migrations.”

“This chaotic recomposition is real, but probably transitory”estimates Pierre Razoux, of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES).

“Mechanically, the end of the war will see a weakening and wearing down of Russia and Europe. The two big winners could be the United States and China.”account.

Will this imply a total division of the world? In the current context, emerging countries such as Brazil or India are trying to appear as powers of “balance”avoiding clearly lining up.

The Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, even advocates creating a “group of countries” for “to end” to the war in Ukraine, an initiative that he proposed to his peers from the United States and France, and hopes to propose to the Chinese Xi Jinping.

Chinese position and Russian vassalage

China, which sees itself as the world’s leading power in 2049, is wondering, like the United States, how to put this war on its agenda.

Beijing supports Vladimir Putin’s Russia, although it tries to make its position appear acceptable to Westerners.

A report by the secret services of Estonia, a former Soviet republic and member of the EU, describes as “mistake” consider the “reduced support” from Xi to Putin’s war as a “distancing sign”.

Although Beijing does not help Moscow as Washington does with kyiv, “the economic relationship was strengthened”says Alice Ekman, an expert on China at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS).

But Russia, with a larger nuclear arsenal than China, risks being relegated to the status of a subordinate power.

“Russia is not in a position to negotiate with China, which will take what it wants from Russia and not give it what it wants.”such as weapons or some components, estimates Agathe Demarais, head of forecasting at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

For Razoux, “to avoid economic and strategic vassalage”Moscow bets on “diversify their geopolitical, economic and strategic relations: Turkey, the Middle East, Iran, Africa”.

Europe, power or pawn?

The EU is at a crossroads. Will the war allow it to reassert itself as a major third player or relegate it to Washington’s pawn?

“Europe has shown its capacity for resistance, quick reaction since the start of the war, in military support, for refugees, in reducing energy dependency”pointed out a participant in high-level European decisions at the beginning of the conflict.

Together in support of kyiv, Europe wants “strengthen the relationship with the United States, but realizes that one day she could find herself alone” if the ultra-republican and isolationist camp wins in Washington, Razoux estimates.

Spurred on by its more Atlanticist members, who only see their security under the US and NATO umbrella, the EU will seek to reduce other strategic dependencies such as critical raw materials, semiconductors, food, etc.

For the French researcher Bruno Tertrais, from the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), the Europeans risk finding themselves against the wall if they do not react.

And the Pacific?

“The relationship between the United States and China will shape the 21st century”prophesied in 2009 Barack Obama, opening the way for the US turn towards Asia, to the detriment of Europe.

The war in Ukraine represents “a strategic diversion” for Washington, according to Tertrais.

In addition, the US president, Democrat Joe Biden, must seek a balance between those who want a “quick” solution to the conflict and those in the Republican Party reluctant to send weapons to Ukraine, according to Giovanna De Maio, a researcher at George Washington University.

On the other hand, the case of Ukraine makes it possible to prepare for an eventual conflict with China over Taiwan, the commander of the US troops in Japan, James Bierman, recently reminded the Financial Times.

The end of globalization?

The economic sanctions imposed by Europe, the United States and other Ukrainian allies on Russia dealt a severe blow to the already weakened globalized free trade, promoted after the Cold War.

These measures “bridge the gap in the diplomatic space, between declarations of no effect and life-threatening military interventions”summarizes Demarais in his book “Backfire”.

Decisions such as limiting the maximum price of a barrel of Russian crude adopted by the G7 and the EU thus caused “the end of the world market”points out Patrick Pouyanné, executive president of TotalEnergies.

But, by undermining the idea of ​​a world price, they could have another effect: allow India and China, which do not impose sanctions, to buy Russian crude at a lower cost, he warns.

The restrictions on Russian products exacerbate the previous blows dealt to world trade, either by protectionist decisions in the name of sovereignty or by external factors, such as the impact of the covid pandemic on supply chains.

Cost of living

The war shot up the prices of three basic elements for humanity – food, heating, light – in many regions, from developing Africa to prosperous Europe.

Is “cost of living crisis” it was already looming before the pandemic, points out the World Economic Forum in its latest report on global risks.

Although some governments tried to limit its effects, 2022 was “marked” by “an unprecedented surge” of social demonstrations, which often led to protests against the authorities, according to a study by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, linked to the German social democratic party SPD.

The Middle East and North Africa, major importers of food products, are two of the most exposed regions, especially when the poorest countries have little room for financial manoeuvre.

Source: AFP