Russia’s main grain industry body warned Friday that Ukrainian drone strikes on Black Sea ports and cargo ships could soon halt grain exports, driving up wheat prices and triggering famine across Africa and the Middle East.
The Russian Union of Grain Exporters and Producers told Reuters that attacks on dry cargo vessels and port infrastructure posed a direct threat to global food security. The union said importers had not yet faced a shortage thanks to existing stockpiles, but warned the crisis would soon affect many countries.
Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter and Ukraine is also a major agricultural exporter. Both countries have been striking each other’s export facilities and commercial vessels in the Black Sea in recent weeks, pushing wheat prices higher.
A market source told Reuters on Thursday that a Ukrainian drone attack caused significant damage to a major grain export terminal at Russia’s Taman port. The union said what it called systematic Ukrainian attacks, which began in July, could soon produce a total blockade of Black Sea export corridors.
Ukraine’s largest agricultural union, the UAC, warned in recent weeks that Russian strikes near the port of Odessa were restricting exports during the critical harvest period. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Friday that Russian attacks on Black Sea shipping threatened global food security and urged European partners to help address the situation.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said Friday that its forces struck 31 vessels linked to Ukrainian armed forces last week, including 23 cargo ships and four bulk carriers.
A grain corridor negotiated by the United Nations after the full-scale war began in February 2022 has been effectively closed in recent weeks due to Russian attacks.
Prolonged crisis
The Russian union warned that the shortfall of Russian wheat for other countries this harvest could reach 30 to 35 million metric tons, or about 15% of total global wheat trade, a gap it said other exporters could not fill.
If current conditions persist, the union said, the free-on-board price of wheat could rise to between $340 and $370 per ton and potentially exceed $400, unleashing food inflation worse than pandemic-era supply disruptions. The Middle East and Africa, which depend heavily on Black Sea basin supplies, face the greatest risk. In the poorest importing countries, the union warned, rising prices could lead to famine.
