Political scientist Oreshkin: Tokayev probably already regrets that he asked for help from the CSTO

The struggle for power in Kazakhstan is not taking place with the insurgent people, but between the behind-the-scenes groups that use this people as a resource, according to Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin.

“That is why, it seems to me, [президент Казахстана Касым-Жомарт] Tokayev decided – perhaps having made a mistake in his political assessment of the situation – that the security officials were disloyal to him, had betrayed him, they had their own interests and strategy. Therefore, he has nothing to rely on, he cannot be sure that the security forces fulfill the oath, obey him, he turned to the CSTO. This means that Tokayev does not control the power resource, which is not at all a fact, he could overestimate the danger. Maybe he could use some part of the troops loyal to him. It will be visible in the next few hours or days, “Oreshkin said in a comment for Business Online.

“Putin’s task is to keep the one who can control this entire territory, and this person is Tokayev. So the question is not how Russia will help him, but in what form. That is, he will send troops directly or send a group of paratroopers so that Mr. Tokayev does not get nervous. One way or another, Putin will be forced to enter this game. Of course, based on his system of priorities, he would be glad to make Tokayev weaker and more dependent on the Kremlin. Therefore, he would probably be interested in the presence of Russian troops in Kazakhstan. But I’m not at all sure that Tokayev is happy about this. In my opinion, he was a little scared and asked for help from the CSTO ahead of time, maybe now he regrets it, ”the expert suggested.

He explained that in Kazakhstan there is a distribution of powers between the so-called zhuzes. There are three zhuzes – senior, middle and junior. This is an additional floor in the human identity system. Within one zhuz, there are several clans or tribes. For example, Tokayev and Nazarbayev are representatives of the senior zhuz, but of different clans within it, Oreshkin said.

Among the security officials, there are traditionally quite a few representatives of the younger zhuz, who are not too trusting of the elder. “The country is commanded by the senior zhuz, and the people of the younger zhuz are working, whose leaders believe that this is unfair, because oil and gas are produced in the west of the country, on their traditional land, and people from Alma-Ata are in command.