Russians warned about “waves” for the ruble in September

The Russian national currency in the first autumn month will keep moving in a limited range of 55-67 rubles. per dollar. For the euro, the framework is narrower, and the yuan will be traded without major changes, BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov predicted for the PRIME agency.

“It is impossible to say unequivocally where the dollar and euro rates will be at the end of the month. The technical picture for the dollar and the euro is on the side of buyers,” he noted and added that in August the ruble was also trading in limited ranges against competitors.

The dollar exchange rate spent the last month of summer in the corridor of 60, 57-62.66 rubles. and lost 2.73% against the Russian currency. The euro exchange rate consolidated in the range of 58.23-63.93 rubles. with an average price of 61 rubles. and decreased by 3.95% against the Russian currency. Yuan fell by 7% and remains to be traded in the range of 8.53-9.45 rubles.

The positive impact on the ruble will continue to have a surplus in the balance of payments of the Russian Federation and the continuing imbalance between supply and demand; sale of currency by exporters during the tax period, which begins on the 15th day of each month; high oil prices; payment of some importers for Russian gas in the national currency; delaying the adoption of a new budget rule.

Trading volume in euro/ruble and dollar/ruble pairs remains at a low level. Also, the sale of currency by individuals and legal entities plays in favor of the ruble due to the introduction of commissions on brokerage accounts: commissions of brokers and banks are pushing everyone to convert the currency of unfriendly countries into rubles.

Of the negative factors, Antonov singled out the lifting of restrictive measures by the Bank of Russia and the growth of imports. The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has been lowered to 8%, and the regulator has left the window open for another reduction.

Two more factors are investors’ expectations of the updated parameters of the fiscal rule, as well as the resumption of foreign exchange interventions by the Central Bank in September. The demand for the US dollar and the euro is growing in the world due to the growth of rates, the analyst stated.

“Since the dollar and the euro are worth the same, it means that the resistance and support levels will also be the same. For September, I allocate a zone of 55-67 rubles for them, ”the expert pointed out.

At the same time, in his opinion, if in the first half of the month the ruble starts to strengthen, then in the second half it may recover to 60 rubles. If the ruble begins September with a weakening, then at first we should expect an increase in exchange rates to the upper limit of the range, then a decline will follow. Level of 60 rubles. is a magnet for the dollar and the euro. It suits buyers and sellers until the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation publishes new parameters of the budget rule in order to understand what the cut-off price for oil will be and what volumes will be used for interventions.

Despite the fact that over the summer trading volumes for the yuan doubled, for the yuan / ruble pair, the current range for September remains 8.50-9.50 rubles, Antonov summed up.