Hawaii is facing a second major storm in two weeks as a rapidly developing Pacific system named Invest 90 moves toward the islands. Meteorologists warned that the giant storm taking aim at the Pacific island chain has a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Friday.
Forecasters with AccuWeather believe the massive weather system will reach hurricane status by Saturday. It could pass within 100 miles of Hawaii's Big Island just hours later, threatening communities still recovering from catastrophic weather.
Spaghetti models tracking all possible paths of tropical storms and hurricanes show a potential track that would land a direct hit on the Big Island by Sunday. AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva warned that the island faces heightened vulnerability to heavy rainfall.
"The Big Island will be especially sensitive to flooding after Lala already caused significant flooding and mudslides last weekend," DaSilva said in a statement.
Early forecasts predict that the Big Island and its closest neighbor, Maui, could see between four and eight inches of rain as the hurricane passes. Some areas on the Big Island may see closer to 12 inches of rain, with AccuWeather warning of a worst-case scenario of 24 inches.
Currently designated as Invest 90, the developing storm is situated less than 1,400 miles from Hawaii. If a cyclone forms and reaches sustained winds of 39 to 74 mph, the National Hurricane Center will rename it Tropical Storm Iselle or Moke, depending on its exact location in the Pacific Ocean at that time.
Hawaii, a tropical archipelago in the Central Pacific Ocean, relies on early warning systems from federal and commercial weather forecasting services to prepare for severe ocean storms. The island chain is particularly vulnerable to flash floods and mudslides due to its steep volcanic mountain terrain and localized drainage channels.
National Hurricane Center Forecast
Officials with the National Hurricane Center described the approaching storm as "producing showers and thunderstorms that continue to show signs of organization."
"A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so as the system moves westward," the weather agency's forecast revealed.
A tropical depression represents the initial stage of a tropical cyclone, occurring when a low-pressure area forms accompanied by thunderstorms and relatively low wind speeds. However, these weather systems can quickly intensify into a named tropical storm once sustained winds reach 39 mph, displaying a classic swirling shape and a defined center.
AccuWeather forecasters have predicted that Invest 90 will grow into a Category 1 hurricane. Under standard meteorological scales, a Category 1 hurricane develops sustained winds ranging between 75 and 95 mph.
Hurricane Lala struck Hawaii as a Category 1 storm, with its eye coming within 30 miles of the Big Island. Current spaghetti models suggest the new hurricane could take a very similar path toward the state, although several tracks predict it will stay farther south.
"The rainfall amounts and location of the rain is going to be largely dependent on the storm track, which could move farther south and largely miss the islands. That doesn't mean there wouldn't be significant impacts to land, though," DaSilva warned.
Devastation from Hurricane Lala
The threat from Invest 90 comes as Hawaii continues to recover from Hurricane Lala, which struck on August 15 and caused an estimated $3-5 billion in destruction. Hawaii Governor Josh Green revealed that the storm damaged or destroyed over 100 homes on Hawaiʻi Island, better known as the Big Island.
Governor Green stated that most of the destruction occurred during severe flooding and mudslides in the Kaʻū District on the south side of Hawaiʻi Island. Police in Hawaii have attributed two deaths directly to the effects of Hurricane Lala.
The Hawaiʻi Police Department announced that 93-year-old May Doi was killed during the hurricane. Doi, a resident of Nāʻālehu on Hawaiʻi Island, was last seen on August 14 as the hurricane approached and began to deliver heavy rains and winds.
She was reported missing on August 16 and was later found dead on Monday afternoon in the Kaʻū District. Investigators believe extreme weather played a role in Doi's death, though an exact cause has not been determined.
Meanwhile, the remains of an unidentified man believed to be in his 60s were discovered by residents on Tuesday in a pasture off Highway 11 in the Kaʻū District. Police confirmed that no foul play is suspected in either case and both deaths have been attributed to the impacts of Hurricane Lala.
Hawaiʻi Island is the largest island in the Hawaiian archipelago, featuring massive volcanic structures such as Mauna Loa and Kilauea. The Kaʻū District forms the southernmost area of the island, characterized by expansive rural terrain, agricultural land, and long stretches of coastal highway including Highway 11.
Super El Nino and Active Hurricane Season
Meteorologists have been warning that the 2026 Pacific hurricane season could be particularly active due to the emergence of a "super" El Nino in June. El Nino is a natural climate pattern in which central and eastern Pacific ocean surface temperatures become significantly warmer than average, altering global weather patterns.
Because significantly warmer Pacific waters fuel tropical cyclone activity, forecasters with AccuWeather predicted there would be 17 to 22 named storms across the Pacific this year. Between nine and 13 of those systems are projected to become hurricanes, with as many as eight predicted to reach major hurricane status at Category 3 or greater.
Hurricane Lala reached Category 3 status after moving past Hawaii and restrengthening in the open Pacific Ocean this week. Major hurricanes at Category 3 or higher carry sustained winds of at least 111 mph and present severe dangers to coastal communities.
Weather experts had previously alerted Hawaiian residents to the elevated risks facing the region prior to the summer storm season. "Hawaii has gone a long time without a direct hurricane landfall, but that should not lead to complacency," DaSilva explained in May.
"Some islands were hit hard by flash flooding in March. People across Hawaii should prepare for an increased risk of tropical impacts this year," DaSilva said.
