The number of dangerous "fire weather" days across Europe has more than doubled since the 1980s, according to a new study, as France and Spain battle some of the worst wildfires in living memory.
Researchers from the University of Groningen analysed wildfire records alongside weather and climate data collected between 1981 and 2025. They focused not on fire counts alone but on the hot, dry and windy conditions that allow blazes to ignite quickly, spread rapidly and burn with intensity.
Their findings, published in the journal Scientific Reports, show that fire-promoting weather has intensified by up to 50 percent in parts of France and Spain over the past decade compared with the period between 1981 and 2010.
The increase in high-risk days is especially striking. In many parts of the five countries studied, which include Spain, Portugal, France, Italy and Greece, summers that once saw fewer than 10 days of severe fire weather now see around 25.
"We found that fire weather has severely intensified across the region," the researchers wrote.
Rising temperatures and increasingly dry conditions are largely responsible for the shift, the team said. These changes leave vegetation parched, meaning even a small spark can develop into a major wildfire.
Fewer fires, but more dangerous ones
Despite the worsening weather conditions, the annual number of fires has fallen by around 40 percent across all five countries over the past decade. The researchers attribute this to improvements in firefighting, forest management, public awareness campaigns and efforts to prevent accidental ignitions.
However, they warn that the fires which do occur are burning under increasingly extreme conditions, making them harder to contain.
The study also identified links between Europe's wildfire weather and El Nino, the natural warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The researchers found that El Nino often preceded periods of particularly dangerous fire weather in northwestern Iberia, Sicily and southern Greece.
The current conditions on the ground underscore the urgency. Over the past six days, the largest French wildfire since 1949 has burned west of Bordeaux, destroying 240 homes. Fires near Madrid have consumed 190,000 acres, an area described as almost the size of New York City.
What needs to change
The researchers argue that reducing wildfire risk will require more than fighting fires after they start. They recommend expanding controlled burns and adopting land management practices that make forests more resilient to hotter, drier conditions.
They add that continued global warming is likely to intensify fire weather further unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, and warn that fewer but potentially more destructive fires will likely become the new normal.
