The Peruvian economy will close the year at -0.5% or -0.6% – its worst level in the last 25 years, not counting the pandemic – according to Carlos Prieto, manager of the BCP’s Economic Studies Area.
The equation that explains the deterioration of GDP is known: social protests, El Niño Costero, Cyclone Yaku, inflation and political tension, as well as the exhaustion of the (economic) stimuli of the pandemic.
It is worth adding that the BCP projection differs by more than one percentage point with that of the Government of Dina Boluarte, which expects to complete the current at 1.1%. Entities such as IPE or Macroconsult agree on finishing below 0%.
The inexorable statistical rebound that occurs after the recession will not be enough to improve the quality of life of the masses, Prieto warns, since the BCP foresees GDP growth of 2% for 2024.
“It is a gradual rebound, but with a significant level of uncertainty,” he told the media, referring to the El Niño phenomenon as the cause of the pessimism in his estimates.
potential was lost
He also maintains that it is most likely that the FEN will be moderate or strong, and this limits the potential of Peruvian growth, which to reverse the advance of poverty and the fall in salary income, must vary annually at thresholds of 4% or 5%. %.
Thus, the most tangible effect of the economic slowdown is perceived in the decline in the average real salary, which is -7.1% below that of 2019; while in neighbors like Colombia they already exceeded it by 2.0%.
If El Niño is not as aggressive as expected, GDP can reach 3% in 2024, but we will still fall short.
The compass to follow
Private investment has accumulated five quarters in negative territory – in mining the drop is close to 20% – and business expectations, despite the change of Government a year ago, remain pessimistic. Here, Prieto is aware that it can only be recovered “with observed data.”
“It is not that we will always be in a contractionary phase, we are going to go out and operate until we gradually reach positive territory, but it will be insufficient if the Government is not capable of moving from announcements to the concrete execution of projects,” he said.
Specifically, Prieto recognizes that not every year there will be a megaproject like Quellaveco that boosts private investment figures, but the unblocking of Chavimochic III or modifying the procedures and permits so that mining expansion works can begin are on the table. execute from now on.
He assures that private investment would return to the positive range next year as long as the political storms, which since the bicentennial have cost Peru US$21,000 million, also calm down.
“There was a capital outflow between 2021 and 2022 due to political events of 21 billion dollars, almost 8 points of GDP that left and did not return. This capital should generate employment,” he added.
Not everything is alarming for the new year
From the BCP they maintain that the drivers of the economic rebound in 2024 are the favorable price of copper, which would equal or exceed US$3.85 per pound, in an optimistic scenario for Peru despite the slowdown of clients such as China; added to the reactivation of agriculture and fishing – the latter affected by pausing the anchovy catching season in the middle of the year.
Investment projects such as the Chancay megaport and lower inflation also explain the rebound, which would help improve purchasing power.
Caja Raíz will enter the liquidation process and BCP will be responsible for returning savers
The numbers
-7.1% the average real salary fell compared to the pre-pandemic year.
27.8% of the population will continue to be poor in 2028. Same level as in 2011.
Source: Larepublica
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