The country’s electrical situation is becoming increasingly complex and delicate, according to industry experts. The latest resolution of the Colombian Ministry of Energy makes the supply of electricity more expensive, while other processes such as the production of heat in Ecuador via barges or the import of gas itself seem distant.

Hydroelectric production in Ecuador is decreasing: this Monday, October 16, the national electricity operator (Cenace) reported that daily production was 68%, when it is normally 90%.

Two days before, the Colombian Minister of Mining and Energy, Andrés Camacho Morales, with resolution 40619 of October 14, established parameters for energy exports due to the El Niño phenomenon. This indicates, among other things, that electricity will be sold only using production from thermal power plants, considering that the export of energy to Ecuador has increased significantly, and its reservoirs are getting smaller, which is not suitable for self-supply. plants that run on liquid fuels.” It also determines that it will be energy that does not require economical dispatch to cover total domestic or national demand. These measures, according to the same decision, will be in force until April 30, 2024.

According to Jorge Luis Hidalgo, an energy expert and manager of Green Power, in September the price of the energy we bought from Colombia was 25 cents. After last week’s solution, the price jumped to 35 cents. But by this Monday the 16th, it had reached 57 cents, according to unofficial information from Cenace.

This is evident because the energy Colombia is now selling us is thermal, with a matrix for liquid fuel production. This price, Hidalgo points out, is extremely expensive. If compared to hydroelectric production in Ecuador, which is between 4 and 6 cents, it would be between 10 and 12 times higher. Meanwhile, if compared to the energy produced by diesel, it would be four times more expensive than the most expensive energy in Ecuador.

The danger of power outages due to low water levels was warned a year ago, but there was no response

For Hidalgo, this is “horror” and he comments that there are clear people who are responsible for getting into this situation, and these are the people who have managed the sector for more than ten years, among whom he mentioned the Minister of Energy, Fernando Santos Alvite. ; Gabriel Argüello, from Cenaca; and Gonzalo Uquillas, from the Ecuadorian Electricity Corporation (Celec).

Meanwhile, Esteban Albornoz, Minister of Electricity under Rafael Correa, indicates that the country’s energy situation is becoming more delicate. There are several factors exacerbating the crisis: when Colombia replaces the hydroelectric power it has been selling us with thermal power, the price of a kilowatt-hour rises above 50 cents. It is also clarified that in its statement, Colombia does not guarantee the delivery of electricity. And it is not even currently delivering the 400 MW it offered.

On the other hand, he warns that the Mazar reservoir has already been used up, so the energy from Mazar, Pauta and Sopladora could soon stop being used.

On October 3, 2023, the authorities ruled out the possibility of rationing in Ecuador, although special exclusions were announced for that day. Then the CEO of Cenace, Gabriel Argüello, the Minister of Energy, Fernando Santos, and the manager of Celec, Gonzalo Uquillas, calmed the generated alarm. Photo: API

All this led Cenace to issue a report that warns of the delicacy of the situation, in which the power sector has already been declared a state of emergency and indicates that we will enter a “deficit warning period”.

For Albornoz, the other measures announced by the Government, in the sense that they will import gas – either by using the Campo Amistad plant or by barge with flexible hoses, or the possibility of energy production by barge or land with fuel oil They don’t seem to be close and they might get there, but out of time, he comments.

This whole panorama is far from what Minister Fernando Santos hinted a few days ago in the sense that there will be no problem with the supply of energy from Colombia, because there is good hydrology. In addition, he commented that the possibility of importing gas will be ready in November.

Both experts agree that Ecuador will most likely experience blackouts in the coming months.