Fishing GDP is on track to close with a drop of 0.31%

The fishing sector will be one of the most affected by the impact of climate change. In an optimistic scenario, its GDP will reach -0.31% if a fishing window of at least 45 days opens; However, if it does not materialize, its production will be -0.50%, according to estimates by the consulting firm Macroconsult prepared for the National Fisheries Society (SNP).

Sector crisis

In a normal year, two industrial fishing seasons are usually authorized, the first from April to July and the second from November to January. In June 2023, the Ministry of Production (Produce) officially canceled the first season, as exploratory fishing led by Imarpe showed that there was a high incidence of juveniles—anchovies smaller than the permitted catch size of 12 centimeters—which reached up to 80%.

“This suspension was correct, because indeed the species cannot be put at riskbut there are associated economic costs,” said Elmer Cuba, consultant for Macroconsult. He explained that the impact of this decision was that 2.4 million metric tons (MT) of anchovy were no longer landed, which would have generated a total of US$1.4 billion in fishmeal and fish oil exports (see infographic).

In August, a new exploratory fishing was authorized for ten days, to verify if the resource was in better condition. However, from the first hours the fishermen themselves reported a shortage of fishing – because the resource was dispersed to search for colder waters – and when they managed to catch something, the majority were juveniles that ended up as flour.

In this way, August recorded an unusual increase in fishing landings for Indirect Human Consumption (CHI) by 125%, compared to the same month in 2022.

Industrial proposal

The industry is calling for a short fishing season of a month and a half to be opened, during which time it is projected to capture 1.2 million MT of anchovy, which would generate US$792 million in exports of fishing products. Which would minimize the losses of the sector, according to Cuba.

However, the outlook is not very encouraging. The Fiscal Council reported that the presence of FEN Costero can be extended until the summer of 2024, so the second fishing season is at risk of happening.

In addition to this, the latest statement from the ENFEN Multisectoral Commission stated that in the coming weeks the anchovy will maintain its reproductive activity, and although the sea temperature has dropped “it is more likely that the strong warm conditions will continue until November.”

Will the price of fish go up?

More than 70% of fishing landings in Peru are from anchovy, according to Macroconsult. For this reason, the low or high availability of this resource has a greater impact on the fishing GDP.

“Anchovy fishing is intended for indirect human consumption, which is processing in plants where added value is given by producing flour, fish oil and other marine products,” explained Diego Díaz, partner of the consulting firm.

In this way, a price increase for the Peruvian consumer is ruled out, since almost 100% of the anchovy caught is exported.