In September, tax collection recorded its second largest drop so far in 2023 (-18.7%), only surpassed by that obtained after the ravages of Cyclone Yaku in April (-26.8%), and there are no signs of improvement for the last quarter of the year.
In the annual snapshot, the decline between January and September amounts to -14.3%, with a year-on-year drop in income that, in all cases, exceeds double digits by the seventh month (IR, -14.3%; IGV, -16.9%; ISC, -12.8%), a situation that should be reflected in the MEF’s next growth estimates.
Elmer Cuba, a Macroconsult specialist, attributes this lower dynamism to weak sales in the private investment sector, with special damage to various industrial branches. This affects the collection of VAT, which is added month by month, and the rent, which is paid in advance.
Cuba considers, in this sense, that the MEF will have to redesign its income estimate, since the GDP projection “was strongly linked” to a recovery that does not exist today. Instead, he explains that he should focus on saving the large public projects of 2024.
“Ensure a strong technical rebound from December It is the most important thing now. There is no need to look back, the year is lost,” says Cuba.
Meanwhile, Juan Carlos Odar, an economist at Phase Consultores, sees it as difficult for the MEF to meet its fiscal goals at the end of the year after these figures.
At this point, he maintains that there is a projection of the deficit “that seems increasingly difficult to achieve” depending on income much below expectations. It is for this reason, he explains, that the deficit until August is around 2.6% of GDP, when the goal this year is 2.4%.
“Just as the collection falls, it is possible that the dynamics of public investment also fall, since it begins to be compared against high levels from last year,” anticipates Odar.
Sunat: income hits rock bottom
Total, September collection reached S/11,055 million.
Tax refunds made in September amounted to S/1,873 million.
Income is reduced due to lower dynamism in the economy. For example, cement consumption maintained a negative variation of -9.45% last August.
Source: Larepublica
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