The effects of the volatility of international trade and increasingly abrupt climate change will drive a sluggish 12% growth in agricultural and fisheries production in Latin America and the Caribbean, according to the recent report OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032.
According to the report, released this week, the region will concentrate 30% of the global production of commodities such as corn and soybeans, in addition to the supply of sugar, beef, poultry and flour, in a scenario marked by a takeoff of crops, as opposed to fishing.
In this sense, it is expected that 70% of food production in the next decade for the region that includes the Peru It will correspond to crops, with a joint yield in all countries of 17%, while the livestock and fishing industry will contribute only 11% and 10%, respectively, much further behind.
For the FAO, the export of food will be key to the development of the economies in the region. In this way, the block will have an underlined “central position in the world trade“, but always at the cost of this growth of crops and food activity in general being supported by a “global market oriented towards its opening”.
This is due to the fact that the international market is “increasingly fragile” due to constant conflicts that highlight the disadvantages of these purely supplier economies, although there are certain exceptions such as El Salvador and Panama that, even though they are part of the bloc, are importers. .
Disaster. The intense rains caused by Cyclone Yaku and the El Niño Costero phenomenon affected agriculture and left isolated populations after the rivers overflowed. Photo: diffusion
The orb heats up
On the other hand, FAO It affects the risks that exist in the global soybean production chain, where Brazil currently occupies more than half of the supply, but which is largely threatened by the climate crisis. The projection is that it reaches 54% by 2032.
The document recalls that many countries in the region have already been affected by long droughts —such as the one currently occurring in Uruguay—, as well as forest fires that jeopardize their production potential, on a territory that occupies more than 2,000 million square meters. cultivated hectares.
However, the multilateral organization recognizes that “under normal conditions” of the climate there are tangible opportunities to fill the gaps in food demand that may appear on the horizon, especially from the uncertainty that will be generated in the next decade at sea. Black after the Ukrainian war.
The situation is aggravated if one considers that a decade of advances in the availability of calories “has stalled since 2015”, dragged down by a marked “macroeconomic instability” which has been accentuated for the entire block.
FAO: 14% of global food is lost
FAO He also warned that global food waste generates losses of about US$400,000 million (about 368,000 million euros) each year and implies the wastage of 14% of the food produced globally.
In 2023, per capita intake is expected to reach 3,111 kilocalories per person per year, a slow growth of 3% for a decade. According to the organism, the consumption of sugar in the Latin American region it continues to be “high”, almost 65% above the world average.
The key
Urea. Every 10% increase in the price of fertilizers generates a 2% increase in the cost of food.
Oatmeal. In 2032, 41% of all cereals will go directly for human consumption.
Source: Larepublica
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