Sales are above pre-pandemic levels. Those for vehicles are the highest in eleven years. Since March, the inaugurations of new stores have become constant, and more so in the last months of the year. The president of the Guayaquil Chamber of Commerce, Miguel Ángel González, analyzes the good and bad that happened to the economy in 2022.
What facts allowed sales records to have been given?
The economy is recovering. And that is due to several factors. The first thing that stands out is the effort of the productive sector. No matter what happens in the environment, companies always seek to get ahead. It is part of your essence. Additionally, the pandemic forced all of us to innovate, finding more efficient and productive ways of working, as well as doing different things. On the other hand, the business confidence index has also increased and this improves economic dynamism. The macroeconomy is putting itself in order and that strengthens confidence. Ecuadorian exports have also grown significantly, generating more foreign exchange for domestic consumption.
New brands arrived, chains of retail, clothing, other fast food, supermarkets expanded. We saw long lines to enter the new stores. How is this explained?
Those are signs that the economy is reactivating. Despite the obstacles, companies want to grow and people want to consume. This does not mean that everything is resolved, but they are signs of recovery. There are still several economic indicators that need to improve, but the fact that sales are growing above pre-pandemic levels is a good sign and a reason to be optimistic. It is true that in these sales there is an effect of rising prices due to the increase in maritime freight and the Russian conflict, but in any case we see that the trend is positive. It must also be considered that not all sectors of the economy have recovered in sales, and that GDP does not reach the pre-pandemic level either, but there are sectors that have done very well, and they influence so that in the general aggregate we see numbers positives. Additionally, being a dollarized economy, Ecuador has a strong currency unlike other countries in the region that have shown a depreciation of their currency against the dollar. Another positive factor that has motivated investment is low inflation.
How do you analyze this indicator and that of employment in Ecuador?
Ecuador’s inflation remains relatively low. It is currently the second lowest in South America. This is a positive factor. And although many items had high price increases, due to the Russian conflict and the costs of maritime freight, in the products of the basic basket the increase has been moderate.
Regarding employment, we can see that the level of employment/unemployment has reached pre-pandemic levels. However, adequate employment has not yet reached 2019 levels. And the main cause is the rigid labor code that we have in the country. Worldwide, Ecuador is the fifth country with the worst practices for hiring personnel. If we want to increase suitable employment we must modernize our outdated code.
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How much does the investment in Ecuador end this year? Are we missing a lot? The Investment Law that the Government was betting on did not go beyond the Assembly, what can be expected for 2023?
In order to generate employment for those 3 out of 10 Ecuadorians who do not have formal and adequate employment, huge levels of investment are required in our country. Both domestic and foreign. Public and private. The current level of investment is not enough. That is why Ecuador must become an attractive country for investment. There is no job without investment. Just to have a reference, if a basic salary per year, with all the social benefits, amounts to about $6,000, and there are around 6 million people without adequate employment, about $36 billion of investment is required in the country per year only in employment, without considering investment in infrastructure, technology or working capital.
The investment law was an important tool to create a better environment for certain types of investments in Ecuador. Unfortunately, our politicians do not agree. It is necessary that we reach a national consensus in Ecuador for investment and employment.
What do you think was the best of 2022 in economic matters?
Sales managed to grow in the face of a global economic slowdown scenario. The beginning of the reduction of the tax on the outflow of foreign currency -ISD- (in January, April, July and October it fell 0.25% and thus went from 5% to the current 4% and every three months it will continue to fall until that tax is eliminated ), low inflation, putting the macroeconomy in order. Regarding foreign trade, the vision of commercial opening is positive.
In a year with a war in Europe that affected the world, a rise in the prices of raw materials, a drop in oil, a strike in Ecuador, laws that were not passed, if I had to identify the bad as the seven economic plagues that Ecuador suffered in in 2022, what would they be?
Among the aspects that harmed the economy in 2022 is the increase in prices due to the Russian conflict, the container crisis, the non-approval of the investment law, the security crisis, the national strike and the curfew that limited sales for multiple merchants.
The interesting thing is that despite these plagues, we are recovering. The year 2023 must be not only the year of the consolidation of the reactivation, but a year of growth for all. (YO)
Source: Eluniverso
Paul is a talented author and journalist with a passion for entertainment and general news. He currently works as a writer at the 247 News Agency, where he has established herself as a respected voice in the industry.
