Spanish economist Santiago Niño Becerra said Spain's July employment figures show heavy job turnover without any real gain in economic value or wages, in a thread posted on his X account reviewing the month's Social Security affiliation data.
Niño Becerra said the labor market behaved according to the patterns typical of this time of year, describing the movement as a round trip. Unemployment fell and overall affiliation grew during July, according to the data he reviewed.
Sectors that lost and gained jobs
Education led job losses in July, shedding 124,506 affiliates compared with June, a drop Niño Becerra linked directly to the end of the school year. The Special System for Agricultural Workers lost a further 40,605 contributors, which he said reflects the close of farming campaigns that repeats every summer.
On the other side, commerce added 50,100 salaried workers, while hospitality gained 24,000 new affiliates, driven by the summer tourism season.
A labor market "sustained on volume"
Niño Becerra said this exchange of jobs between shrinking and growing sectors is the essence of a labor market sustained on volume, an expression he has used in previous analyses. He warned that July's overall balance shows that job creation barely changes the deep structure of the Spanish economy.
Added value and wages left behind
Niño Becerra went further than describing the affiliation shifts. He said that volume of hiring does little or nothing to raise added value per worker or their pay, a point he has raised in previous public comments criticizing the kinds of jobs Spain's economy generates.
He said the strength of commerce and hospitality provides statistical muscle during peak season but does not resolve the underlying problem he has identified. In his view, seasonality acts as a mirage, with employment rising and falling in step with each campaign while productivity per worker stays stagnant and wages barely move.
Niño Becerra said he does not question the solidity of the official figures, only their interpretation. By calling July's movement a round trip, he suggested that many of the jobs created over the summer months are bound to disappear once the season changes, without having brought lasting improvements to workers' productive capacity or purchasing power.
