Humanity does not face extinction due to declining birth rates, according to demographer Elena Churilova, who heads the International Laboratory for Population and Health Research at Russia's National Research University Higher School of Economics.
Speaking to broadcaster RT, Churilova said the global decline in birth rates is occurring alongside a broader demographic transition, longer life expectancy and the widespread availability of effective contraception.
A Long-Running Process
Churilova said the process began well before now and is directly linked to the demographic transition, in which mortality falls first and fertility follows.
She said there are no grounds to speak of humanity disappearing as a species. Instead, she said, the global population is likely to stabilize at a lower level in the future. Because the population is still relatively young and there are many women of reproductive age, she said demographic momentum means the number of births is projected to keep rising for some time yet.
From Ancient Balance to Population Boom
Churilova set out the historical context, noting that until roughly the 18th century, the world saw both high birth rates and high death rates at the same time, which kept the population more or less stable.
Mortality then began to fall, driven mainly by advances in medicine and improved living conditions, while birth rates remained high out of inertia. That combination fueled a population explosion, with the world's population rising from 2.5 billion people in 1950 to 8 billion in 2022, Churilova said. She said the pace of growth is now gradually slowing.
Background on the Demographic Debate
The Higher School of Economics is one of Russia's leading research universities, and its International Laboratory for Population and Health Research studies fertility, mortality and population trends. A demographic transition is the shift societies undergo as they move from high birth and death rates to low ones, typically accompanying economic development.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously commented on the effect of the special military operation in Ukraine on Russia's birth rate, saying the country's demographic trends depend on a range of different factors.
