Andy Burnham’s proposed National Care Service could cost £21 billion more than anticipated, according to an analysis of his flagship social care policy.
The Prime Minister vowed last week to expend political capital on reforming what he called a broken system, outlining preliminary plans for a National Care Service. Burnham acknowledged the plans would require difficult decisions, raising concerns about potential tax rises.
Analysis by The Mail on Sunday suggests Burnham plans to model the new system on Scotland’s integrated health and social care structure, which costs £18 billion. Experts warn he has failed to account for a key lesson from Scotland, where the share of volunteers providing unpaid care fell from 26 per cent to 18 per cent after integration.
If the same decline occurred across England and Wales, where there are four million volunteer carers, it would create a £21 billion funding gap.
The costings issue has dogged Burnham since he became Prime Minister two weeks ago. The MoS previously reported that he has accumulated £96 billion in policy pledges with no explanation of how they will be funded. He has repeatedly refused to rule out tax rises and has said Britain is under-taxed and that he may have to ask for a little more to fund his agenda.
Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said Burnham had not done the hard work to figure out the detail before making an announcement and asked who would pay. Maxwell Marlow of the Adam Smith Institute warned that copying the Scottish model could trigger a mass exodus of volunteer carers, creating a significant black hole.
Charity Carers UK said 4.7 million unpaid carers in England deserved to be at the heart of the conversation, adding that 600 people give up their jobs every day to provide unpaid care and 35 per cent would not need to if a reliable care service existed.
At a speech in Golders Green last Wednesday, Burnham announced he would accelerate an independent review of adult social care in England led by Baroness Casey, bringing the completion date forward by a year to next summer. He also began cross-party talks with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, though Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch did not attend.
