John Bolton, who served as the White House national security adviser from 2018 to 2019, wrote in The Washington Post that Russian President Vladimir Putin believes he still holds political sway over President Donald Trump, a belief Bolton said is further reducing the odds of serious negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
Bolton said the widely held view that negotiations over international conflicts are always useful is often reinforced by media coverage that notes progress, a quickening pace of talks or expectations of further meetings. But he warned that inactive diplomacy can do more harm than good, and that unpredictable events can strengthen one side's negotiating position, a scenario he suggested may be playing out in Russia's war against Ukraine.
He wrote that the visits to Moscow and Kyiv by Trump administration officials Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner carried an air of desperation despite the usual media fanfare. Their earlier attempts on Ukraine failed earlier this year, he said, possibly just before the war with Iran diverted their attention.
AfD's win in Saxony-Anhalt
Bolton noted that while Witkoff and Kushner were meeting Putin on Saturday, voters in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt handed the Alternative for Germany party its biggest election victory in its short history the next day. The party, which opposes military aid to Ukraine, is often described as pro-Russian, anti-NATO and even anti-American.
Bolton said he could not rule out that the result might have serious consequences for German national politics, and could foreshadow similar effects in France's presidential election next year, on a continent he said badly lacks strong, effective statesmen.
He wrote that this convergence of events could reinforce Putin's confidence that he still holds political influence over Trump, while the European Union loses ground as the conflict heads toward what he called a potentially long winter of destruction on the battlefield and deep inside Ukraine and Russia.
Witkoff and Kushner's talks
Witkoff said he had heard "new ideas" from Russia but did not specify what they were. He and Kushner said the talks had been "meaningful" without explaining why.
Bolton suggested Putin was undoubtedly pleased to hear Witkoff remark that after retiring he would have "all these incredible stories and memories, and your story will be at the top of them."
Witkoff said the United States had presented Kyiv with "important and compelling ideas" during what was his first official visit alongside Kushner. The two stressed the need for "compromises" from Ukraine.
After meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Witkoff said he was confident a good solution would be found. Bolton wrote that Zelensky's response was simply that the war would continue.
Doubts over progress
Bolton noted that less optimistic media reports said Trump's envoys had merely brought "updated versions of previous documents," offered "few new ideas" and "tried to revive previous proposals." He said Putin had again emphasized, as he has done publicly and privately for more than four years, that the war's "root causes" must be removed, including a full withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donbas and an end to any Ukrainian attempt to join NATO.
Bolton said it was no surprise that Zelensky concluded the war would go on. He wrote that it was more than ironic that Trump's misconceptions about international relations lead him to downplay threatening or unacceptable Kremlin behavior so as not to appear to be losing his "golden touch."
Russia's hybrid war in Europe
Bolton said Europe faces an intensifying Russian hybrid war, with missiles and drones striking Poland, Romania and the Baltic states. He noted that a drone carrying explosives had been found at Leipzig airport in Germany, which authorities have linked to Russia, while Trump has shown no concern.
Trump recently said of Putin: "I talk to him. I know him very well. Putin does not intend to attack NATO territory." Bolton wrote that such remarks reinforce Putin's belief, whether right or wrong, that Trump is entirely in his hands, further reducing the chances of serious negotiations, let alone peace.
Bolton said Trump could not contain his excitement over the Saxony-Anhalt result and immediately posted it on Truth Social.
Wider political shifts
Bolton pointed to other developments he said compound the problem: Britain has just undergone its own change of leadership, with a new prime minister untested in international affairs. He said pro-Russian politician Marine Le Pen could win France's 2027 presidential election, and there are claims Russia is trying to influence Sweden's national election, due the following Sunday.
Bolton argued NATO's central task must be to speed up aid to Ukraine now, to make Russia's winter offensive as futile as its previous attempts. He said only Ukraine's own resolve can deter Moscow until a new leader emerges in Washington or Europe capable of mobilizing the West, adding that Putin knows this too.
Trump and Sybiha on the peace process
UNIAN previously reported that Trump described his phone call with Putin as "excellent" and said he believed Putin wanted to settle the war in Ukraine, adding it would be good if Zelensky also wanted to reach a deal. Trump said the delay in signing an agreement was because Zelensky and Putin "hate each other."
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said a statement by Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, who called for the United States to halt support for Ukraine to speed up the war's end, "exposes Russia's true intentions." Sybiha said Russian elites "exist in a parallel world next to their boss" and would rather sacrifice hundreds of thousands of soldiers as "cannon fodder" and drive their economy into freefall than end a war they cannot win. He said only intensified pressure can "cure Russian illusions" and bring Russia to the negotiating table.
