The IEA warns Europe: if it does not reduce gas consumption, the situation will be “extremely vulnerable” in winter

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged Europeans to reduce gas consumption to get through the winter. The body warns: the measures taken so far are insufficienteven if Russia restores this summer the supply through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, something that, they warn, is not guaranteed.

In this line, the executive director, Fatih Birol, has proposed five emergency measures addressed to the industry, the electricity and gas sector and the governments of the EU so that they coordinate their action, but also to consumers so that they reduce the temperature of the heating and raise that of the air conditioning.

“If these types of measures are not applied now, Europe will be in an extremely vulnerable position and could face much more drastic cuts and reductions later,” Birol warns in a message issued in a week in which the Twenty-seven plan to adopt a common position in the face of the challenge of Russian supply cuts.

In his opinion, Europe he has to do now “all he can” to reduce the risk of cuts and rationing in winter “when its most vulnerable citizens are the least able to afford to do without it”, and that without abandoning the course of the energy transition. To do this, Birol proposes five action points:

• Establish gas auction platforms to encourage a reduction in industry demand.
• Minimize the consumption of gas to generate electricity, for example by temporarily resorting to coal, oil and nuclear power plants as an alternative.
• Greater coordination between energy operators across Europe to reduce consumption peaks, since that is when gas-fired plants are used the most to produce electricity
• Reduce the consumption of individuals with standards and controls for air conditioning, for which the administrations have to be exemplary.
• AIE also asks to harmonize emergency plans both at national and European level, including supply cuts and solidarity mechanisms.

Since the beginning of the month, Russia has suspended gas shipments through Nord Stream 1, the main gas pipeline that supplies Europe, theoretically for maintenance work, which should resume from the next day 21.

Should Russia restore supply then and maintain it at the low volumes it had imposed in recent months and completely turn off the tap at the start of the heating season on October 1, the IEA considers that the EU it should have filled its gas reserves to at least 90% in the falland even then it might be missing at the end of winter.

Birol acknowledges that progress has been made in the search for gas from other producing countries, “but it’s not enough” and it is necessary to act above all on the demand side. According to his calculations, in this scenario an additional saving of some 12,000 million cubic meters would be required over the next three months, which is equivalent to the cargo of about 130 ships of those transporting liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The agency does not rule out the possibility of Moscow completely cutting off gas supplies to Europe, among other things because, paradoxically, their income from the sale of oil and gas has skyrocketed since the beginning of the invasion in Ukraine. The sanctions imposed by Westerners have so far not achieved what they intended: Between March and July, Russia has earned 95,000 million dollars from the sale of its hydrocarbons, almost double what it obtained in previous years.

That is why Birol stressed that, given the financial cushion that Russia has constituted and the temptation to use it politically, European leaders must be prepared for a complete closure of the gas taps. “This winter -he concludes- can become a historic test for European solidarity with implications that go far beyond the energy sector”.