Experts showed the countries threatened by terrible hunger. “700 million dramas”. Possible great migration to the EU

Russian aggression may result in a serious food crisis, the effects of which will particularly affect poorer countries, dependent on the import of cereals and food products from Russia and Ukraine, and located in Africa and the Middle East

– says Marek Wąsiński, head of the global economy team at the Polish Economic Institute. He points out, however, that we will also experience perturbations in our part of the world, because the Russian invasion and droughts in Europe and in the world will mean that food prices may be 20 percent after holidays. higher than last year.

Our problems, however, seem to be minor compared to what other countries of the world may face. PIE experts created an index of individual countries’ sensitivity to a potential food crisis. To this end, they analyzed the level of self-sufficiency of a given country in wheat production, the share of Ukraine and Russia in the import of wheat of a given country and the share of cereals and root crops in the energy balance of a given country.

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The specter of hunger for millions of people

According to the analysis of the Polish Economic Institute, at the forefront of the list of countries most threatened by the food crisis are, inter alia, Benin, North Korea, Sudan, Nicaragua and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The next places on the list are: Armenia, Egypt, Lebanon, Georgia, Rwanda, Senegal and Pakistan. It is these countries that are most likely to experience problems with ensuring the physical supply of food.

As noted by Andrzej Kubisiak from PIE, 700 million people live in the 20 countries most exposed to the loss of food security.

This is 700 million potential dramas that could trigger mass migrations to the European Union. Let the black scenarios not come true

– Kubisiak writes.

According to the forecasts of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in the years 2022-23 the number of undernourished people in the world may increase by as much as 13 million.

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The food crisis is Putin’s fault

Russia is responsible for the ongoing food crisis – experts from the Polish Economic Institute have no doubts. As they emphasize, it is not only about the invasion of Ukraine, which led to the collapse of its economy, but also about deliberate measures concerning agri-food markets.

Russia is stealing grain from Ukraine, destroying food warehouses and blocking Ukrainian ports, which have been exporting agri-food products. The dependence of many African and Asian countries on wheat imports from Russia was much greater than on imports from Ukraine. The Kremlin itself also restricts exports to achieve political goals, including by triggering a food crisis and accusing the West of causing it

– says Jan Strzelecki, deputy head of the global economy team at the Polish Economic Institute.

Among the ways to avoid the global food crisis, PIE economists mention, inter alia, the need for international community action to unblock transport corridors across the Black Sea.

In addition, the key issue is to increase the production of cereals, which is possible either by increasing the acreage of crops or by improving the yields, i.e. the average yield obtained per hectare of cultivation.

– they add. They note, however, that due to the rising prices of energy resources and the insufficient amount of available agricultural land of appropriate quality, these activities have their limitations.