The different scenarios of an eventual “victory” of Ukraine against Russia

The prospect of a “victory” of Ukraine versus Russiaunimaginable at the beginning of the conflict, resurfaces in Western discourse with the increase in military aid from various countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to kyiv, but what form could it take?

Between a “status quo” with the current front and the hypothetical return of Crimea to Ukrainethe nature of this kyiv victory is the subject of much conjecture by Western analysts contacted by AFP.

frozen situation

The minimalist scenario involves maintaining the current front line on the ground, where the situation seems frozen.

When Russia launched its offensive on February 24, it stated that it wanted to clean up “Nazis” Y “demilitarize” Ukraine, but has lowered its targets after failing to seize the kyiv region.

The Russian army is now concentrated in the east of the neighboring country, where it is trying “release” the entire region of donbasan area partly controlled by Moscow through pro-Russian separatists since 2014.

In this context, the hypothesis of a “opposition war that would become chronic without a significant escalation” appears as one of the possible scenarios, according to Marie Dumoulinof the European Center for Foreign Relations (ECFR).

“Ukrainians could consider [este escenario] as a victory by discard”which would allow them to save kyiv and access to the sea, indicates the former French colonel Michael Goya.

If the Russian army “proposes a ceasefire, kyiv could see it as a form of victory” and the Russians could for their part “claim a victory, relative, but a victory after all”Explain.

Although this seems unlikely for now, Moscow could assert before its population the self-proclaimed independence of the two Donbas territories, as well as the seizure of several key cities in the Sea of ​​Azov.

“We haven’t gotten to that point yet”Goya relativizes. “The Russians are continuing their offensive and the Ukrainians, who managed to repel them from kyiv, may think that they can also expel them from Donbas. In that case, it seems difficult to imagine an agreement”.

Beyond the Russians, this does not mean that the Ukrainians accept it, since it means “lose part of their territory”ensures Michel Duclosformer French ambassador and advisor to the Montaigne Institute.

“After so many atrocities and kidnappings of Ukrainian civilians, kyiv has no choice but to fight to recapture all of its territory”abounds Margarita Assenova, from the Jamestown Foundation in Washington.

Return to February 24

This scenario would respond to one of kyiv’s repeated requests: the withdrawal of Russian forces from the territories taken since February 24.

the ukrainians “they want to restore their sovereignty, expel the Russian troops” and be able to prevent this from happening again, he told the newspaper Le Monde Derek CholletAdvisor to the US State Department.

for showers, “this would be a form of victory”but it takes “a military progression and that diplomacy finds a way to save face” of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin.

And the Russian withdrawal would be meaningless if Moscow does not give guarantees that it will refrain from intervening in Ukraine’s foreign policy, according to the Jamestown Foundation.

Respect for the territories of Donbas controlled by pro-Russians since 2014, kyiv “can not” abandon them and Moscow “can’t get up from the table” without them, estimates the American historian Edward Luttwak.

But Moscow could “present as a victory” consultations organized in these territories of Donetsk Y Lugansk to determine whether they remain Ukrainian or join Russia, he adds.

Return of Crimea

In the maximalist scenario, which many observers see as unrealistic, kyiv and its Western allies would seek to return the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014, to Ukraine.

Although it is not excluded that kyiv “can regain sovereignty” from Lugansk and Donetsk, “There will be no short-term negotiated solution on Crimea”recently estimated John Herbs, former US ambassador to Ukraine.

The return of this peninsula “it seems impossible”as “I would question the Putin regime, for whom it has been a formidable factor of legitimacy in his own country”explains Duclos.

Goya also considers it “hard”, except a “sudden collapse” of the Russians, but “The relationship of forces is too balanced to suddenly imagine a spectacular victory”.