People Close to Kremlin Alarmed by Rising Cost of War

Nearly eight weeks after Vladimir Putin sent troops to Ukraine, with military losses mounting and Russia facing unprecedented international isolation, a small but growing number of those close to the Kremlin are quietly questioning his decision to go to war.

The ranks of critics at the pinnacle of power remain slim, spread between high-level positions in the government and state-owned companies. They believe the invasion was a catastrophic mistake that will set the country back for years, according to 10 people with direct knowledge of the situation. All spoke on condition of anonymity, too fearful of retaliation to comment publicly.

So far, these people see no chance of the Russian president changing course or any chance of him being challenged at home. Increasingly dependent on a small circle of hard-line advisers, Putin has dismissed attempts by other officials to warn him of the crippling economic and political cost, they said.

Some said they increasingly share the fear expressed by US intelligence officials that Putin could resort to limited use of nuclear weapons if he faces failure in a campaign he sees as his historic mission.

To be sure, support for Putin’s war remains deep within much of the Russian elite, with many publicly and privately supporting the Kremlin’s narrative that conflict with the West is inevitable and the economy will adapt to changing conditions. extensive sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies. And public support remains strong, as the initial shock and disruption of the sanctions have ushered in a kind of surreal stability in Russia.

However, a growing number of people close to the government believe that Putin’s commitment to continue the invasion will condemn Russia to years of isolation and increased tension that will leave its economy paralyzed, its security compromised and its global influence. destroyed.

Some business tycoons have made veiled statements questioning the Kremlin’s strategy, but many powerful players are too fearful of a growing crackdown on dissent to voice their fears in public.

Skeptics were surprised by the speed and breadth of the response from the United States and its allies, with sanctions that froze half of the central bank’s $640 billion in reserves and foreign companies that abandoned decades of investment to shut down operations almost completely. overnight, as well as growing military support for kyiv, which is helping its forces slow down the Russian advance.

Senior officials have tried to explain to the president that the economic impact of the sanctions will be devastating, erasing the two decades of growth and rising living standards that Putin had achieved during his tenure, according to people familiar with the situation.

Putin brushed off the warnings, saying that although Russia would pay a heavy cost, the West had left Russia no choice but to start the war, according to the people consulted. Publicly, Putin says that the “economic blitzkrieg” failed and that the economy will adapt.

The president remains confident that public opinion has his back, with Russians willing to endure years of sacrifice for his vision of national greatness, they noted. Aided by tight capital controls, the ruble has recovered most of its early losses, and while inflation has soared, economic disruption has so far remained relatively limited.

Putin is determined to keep fighting, even if the Kremlin has had to scale back its ambitions from a swift and extensive occupation of much of the country to a grueling battle for the Donbass region in the east. According to this view, settling for less would leave Russia hopelessly vulnerable and weak in the face of the threat posed by the United States and its allies.

In the weeks since the invasion began, Putin’s circle of advisers and contacts has shrunk even further from the limited group of hardliners he regularly consulted before, according to two people.

The decision to invade was made by Putin and only a handful of hard-line officials, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, the reports said. people consulted.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this article. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did not give a direct answer to repeated questions about whether Russia might use nuclear weapons in Ukraine in an interview published on Tuesday.

Critics see no sign that Putin is yet willing to consider calling off the invasion, given the losses, or to make the significant concessions needed to reach a ceasefire. Given their total domination of the political system, alternative views only take hold in private.