Don’t expect China to make peace in Ukraine

By Minxin Pei

Any hope that US President Joe Biden can persuade his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to help stop the war in Ukraine should probably be shelved. China wants to see an early end to the conflict. But he will not use his influence to achieve it.

Biden and Xi apparently talked about different things in their phone call on Friday. In its report on the call, the White House argued that Biden targeted Ukraine and warned of consequences for China if he provided “material support” to Russia. The Chinese summary, on the other hand, mentioned Ukraine only in passing and highlighted Biden’s commitment to the policy of “one china” and his promise not to get involved in a new cold war with the country.

That’s not because China, as some officials in Beijing apparently believe, benefits from sitting on the sidelines while the United States and Russia exhaust themselves in a protracted European conflict. In fact, China loses every day that the fight continues. The only question is how much damage it will take and how quickly.

China is in this situation due, in large part, to the joint statement with Russia on a strategic partnership that they signed on February 4. At the time, many in Beijing and elsewhere viewed the deal as a geopolitical coup. Having Russia as a quasi-ally would be a net strategic gain for China. Furthermore, tensions between Russia and the United States would presumably force Washington to divert resources and attention from the Indo-Pacific, allowing China more freedom in the region.

Now the poor performance of the Russian military on the battlefield and the unified response of the United States and its allies to the invasion have altered that calculation. Instead of a lightning victory, Putin risks humiliating defeat or stagnation as Western sanctions cripple the Russian economy.

The former would be China’s worst nightmare. The strategic consequences of such an outcome are unthinkable for Beijing. Putin certainly understands this, which may be one of the reasons he is eager to drag China into the conflict by asking for military help.

A prolonged war would be only slightly less disastrous for China. A bogging down of Russia could at least buy leaders in Beijing some time to rethink their strategy. But an exhausted Russia will also increase the pressure on China to provide more assistance.

Openly supporting Putin now could turn the tide in Russia’s favor, at least enough to persuade him to accept a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement. But the risks of providing that help are almost certainly too high.

The fact is that China is working with a different program than Russia. Unlike Putin, Xi believes that the current international order, however unsatisfactory, still leaves enough room for China to gain power and influence. If tensions with the United States can be managed well enough to avoid a premature collision, time is theoretically on China’s side. Its stronger growth momentum relative to the United States should gradually tip the balance of power in favor of China.

Backing Putin’s war efforts could precipitate an immediate confrontation with the West, for which China is unprepared. As bad as China’s ties are with the United States, Europe and Japan, it still needs access to their markets: Those three partners accounted for 52% of China’s total foreign trade in 2021, compared to 3.8% for China. Russia. China also relies heavily on advanced Western technology, particularly microchips, while its big companies and banks still cannot afford to have their access to the dollar restricted.

At the same time, Xi surely feels that he cannot abandon Putin. An attempt to pressure the Russian leader into a quick deal could fail, which would be a huge loss of prestige for Beijing. Or it could succeed, but antagonize or weaken Putin so much at home that his hold on power is threatened.

With no good options, China’s only survival strategy for now is to do what it can to help Russia without overstepping US-imposed limits.

This is not a free position. China’s support for Putin has severely tarnished his international image. It is deepening tensions with the United States, fueling the narrative that a confrontation between the nations is inevitable and raising the risks that it will erupt before China is ready.

What is even more worrying, China is losing ground in Europe. If major European countries had been ambivalent about taking sides in the Sino-US rivalry, China’s acceptance of Putin has made such strategic neutrality impossible. In the years to come, it is almost certain that Brussels will move closer to Washington.

What seemed like a brilliant move a few weeks ago looks more and more like a lousy strategic decision. Instead of benefiting from the tensions between Russia and the United States, China finds itself at the mercy of events and its long-term plans are in serious jeopardy. Whoever wins in Ukraine, China has already suffered irreparable losses.