Who belongs to the inner circle of Vladimir Putin? Kremlin elite was unaware of the president’s intentions to invade Ukraine

This week, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba began talks with his Russian counterpart in order to achieve a ceasefire. But, he left his meeting with Sergei Lavrov unsuccessfully, raising new questions around Vladimir Putin.

For the international community, this meant that not even the Russian minister had the order to “negotiate” and for the Ukrainian it seems that there are other decision makers on this matter in Russia.

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Who belongs to the circle of Vladimir Putin?

The Russian president had already publicly declared the independence of the separatist regions of Donbas, in eastern Ukraine. However, observers noted that even Kremlin elites in charge of Russian state media were shocked by news of the invasion, including those directly associated with the presidential administration.

“Our propaganda machine is usually well prepared for all the big events,” says Roman Dobrokhotov, founder of the renowned investigative outlet The Insider.

And he continues, explaining how the machinery of the Russian state works in promoting its interests. “Every Thursday, the directors of our state television channels and other large state media meet in the Kremlin and receive instructions on how to report on this and that. But no one explained to them that there would be war in the Ukraine. Everyone thought that it was just about accepting Donbas as an independent state,” he mentioned.

“It was Vladimir Putin with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, head of the Russian Armed Forces. Only they knew,” Dobrokhotov told DW.

Putin runs the war

Many Russian political analysts agree that President Vladimir Putin is running the Russia-Ukraine conflict single-handedly, leaving little room even for his key ministers.

“Putin’s role in decision-making changed. From being something like chairman of the board and CEO of ‘Russia Inc.’ and listening to other shareholders, he began to behave like a tsar, ”says Nikolai Petrov, senior researcher at Chatham House, whose current research focuses on the secret decision-making process in the Kremlin.

Political analyst Nikolai Petrov agrees. He believes that among those who definitely knew about the war were the so-called “siloviki,” members of Russia’s security agencies who are said to have gained increasing influence in the country in recent years.

Russia’s spy chiefs Alexander Bortnikov, who is director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), and Sergei Naryshkin, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), probably also knew that a full-scale invasion was on the table, According to Petrov. Putin himself is a former KGB foreign intelligence officer and both men have worked with him since the 1970s.

Instead, Petrov points to another man who worked with Putin in the KGB in Soviet times: Nikolai Patrushev, known for his anti-Western views. He is secretary of the Security Council, a body led by Putin himself. Patrushev “communicates with Putin very often because there are weekly Security Council meetings,” says Petrov.