While Colombians were voting to elect members of Congress, the consultation of the three great coalitions was also held to define their presidential candidate.
In total, the three forces received 12 million votes, of the almost 39 million people authorized to exercise voluntary suffrage, with the left-wing coalition, Historical Pact, receiving the most (5.8 million), followed by the right-wing coalition. , Team for Colombia (4.1 million), and leaving behind the center, Centro Esperanza (2.2 million).
The results also confirmed as candidates those who were already favorites in their groups: Gustavo Petro (Historic Pact), Federico Gutiérrez (Team for Colombia) and Sergio Fajardo (Hope Center).
Without a doubt, Petro has become, as happened in 2018, the rival to beat. That time in the second round, despite not convincing everyone, Iván Duque won him due to the rejection generated by the former mayor of Bogotá and former guerrilla fighter due to his closeness to the presidents of the so-called “Socialism of the 21st Century”.
Now it is not known if this time, after a pandemic that has affected all countries in all aspects, the fear of a change that many reject in a traditionally right-wing country will be enough.
However, the results of the Congress show that the left has opened up a good space that, if Petro reaches the Presidency, could have considerable support in the Legislative.
“If he wins the Presidency, the possibility of configuring a coalition of progressive majorities in Congress has been completely opened. Reforms are possible now. And the stability of the progressive government is highly possible,” Petro himself said on Monday.
Petro, who has even said that he could win in the first round, has a long history in politics and has managed to arouse more support over the year, but not without first reconsidering his positions and attitudes, previously considered more aggressive and less tolerant of his opponents. .
He is 61 years old, in his youth he was part of the M19 guerrilla. After a process of reinsertion of this group, he entered politics in the 1990s and became a member of the House of Representatives in two periods 1991-1994 and 1999-2006. Then a diplomat and mayor of the Colombian capital, Bogotá, between 2012 and 2015, when he was dismissed due to a garbage collection crisis, although later judicial authorities indicated that it had not been correct and ordered to pay him the salaries that he had stopped receiving. .
He has also been part of the Senate, first from 2006 to 2010 by election and from 2018 to 2022 to go to the presidential ballot.
Now, according to a report by the consulting firm Colombia Risk Analysis, Petro will have considerable support in Congress, but still far from the majority. Reason why it is important to continue gathering support, especially from Francia Márquez (to the left of Petro), who came second in the Historical Pact primary, in addition to giving the centrists and traditional parties participation in their campaign, since they are still alive and they are important to any aspiration.
For the Colombian analyst Ramiro Bejarano, what happened in Congress is a sign that Petro took a big lead.
“I think that Petro is going to risk it to win in the first round. He has all the options for that to happen and he should be clear about that, because in the second round if he has to face Fico Gutiérrez, the establishment will close ranks around this man and they may end up defeating Petro”, says Bejarano, also a columnist from The Spectator.
Those who will have to fight the most
In the right-wing coalition, Gutiérrez (47 years old) was already the favorite and confirmed his supremacy over opponents who had been talked about a lot, such as Álex Char.
Fico, as he is known locally, has made his political life in his city, Medellín, where he was a councilor and mayor. He considers Petro a “danger to democracy.”
He is a specialist in senior management and political science at the Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, and he is branded as a candidate who does not want to be linked to Uribismo or Duque, and he recalls that the candidate of their party, Centro Democrático – who will see his influence diminish in the next Congress – is Óscar Iván Zuluaga, who will participate as an independent.
But this changed on Monday because Zuluaga renounced his candidacy, so it is expected that Uribismo will send its support to Gutiérrez. “I have made the personal decision to accompany the aspiration of Federico Gutiérrez,” said Zuluaga, who added: “Only united can we preserve democracy and freedom.”
In Team for Colombia they have tried to distance themselves from everything that has to do with the current government, because as happens in other countries, the ruling party has a great discredit for its actions in the political, economic and the pandemic.
Analysts have said that he will have to present a platform that is more than anti-Petro in order to claim victory.
Analyst Sergio Guzmán, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, comments that Fico ultimately represents the current government. Now, although he won Fajardo in percentage of votes, facing Petro he has more chances of losing.
Meanwhile, in the center, Fajardo (65 years old) also confirmed his favoritism, but in total the people who participated in the consultation of the Hope Center coalition were barely half that of the right. That is, by itself it does not move much compared to the other two coalitions.
However, Fajardo came third in the last election very shortly after leaving Petro without a second round and this time he arrives with a little hope, especially because in previous weeks analysts see him as a better option to defeat Petro in the second round. , but the biggest difficulty is that he can go to second defeating the right.
Fajardo was also mayor of Medellín and governor of Antioquia. He is known as the ‘professor’ for university professor and doctor in mathematics, and his political line is moderate, always in the center.
This has made his rivals blame him for an indecisive character, he raises the flags of free education and environmental policies. He has complicated options to grow.
“The first stage has just finished and Colombia is waiting for us to unite it, to change it and to heal it from so many wounds,” Fajardo released after obtaining the nomination, collects AFP.
“I think that Petro beats Federico Gutiérrez, Fajardo who knows, but what happens is that the results of the election suggest that (Fajardo) is a weak candidate, he did not even gather more votes than Francia Márquez,” says Guzmán, who, when asked if there could be a difference in the number of voters in this kind of primary with the vote, comments that there are six million votes difference between the consultation and the vote for the candidates for Congress, so there is still a long way to go to see where those votes end up going or even if more people participate in the presidential election.
“This is not over, but obviously Petro has the advantage,” says Guzmán.
Those with fewer opportunities
In addition to these three there are seven more candidates for the Presidency, but with very little support.
Among them stands out Íngrid Betancourt, a well-known politician and former candidate for the Presidency who spent six years kidnapped by the FARC and who this year has returned to participate in politics after being released in 2008.
At first Betancourt was with the Esperanza Center, but due to inconveniences he became independent with his Verde Oxígeno party.
Rodolfo Hernández, from the League of Anticorruption Leaders; Luis Pérez, from Colombia Think Big; Enrique Gómez, of National Salvation; Luis Murillo, from Colombia Renaciente; John Rodríguez, from Colombia Justa-Libres, and Germán Córdoba, from Cambio Radical.
They will participate and will seek to be noticed in the first round, but Bejarano does not believe that any of them will be able to face the three favorites. (I)
Source: Eluniverso
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