Colombians renew Congress on the way to presidential elections that could be historic

The Colombians They began voting this Sunday to elect a new Congress and define the list of candidates that will face Senator and former guerrilla Gustavo Petro in the presidential elections on May 29, in which for the first time the left is the favorite.

Around 39 million people are eligible to elect the two chambers of parliament (nearly 300 seats) and participate in primaries or party consultations. The day began at 1:00 p.m. GMT without setbacks and will end at 9:00 p.m. GMT.

However, expectations focus on the definition of the presidential candidates rather than on the composition of the next Congress, and on abstention, which has traditionally been around 50% in a country where voting is voluntary.

“It is likely that the debate over the consultations has overshadowed the discussion in Congress,” political analyst Alejo Vargas, from the National University, told AFP.

The left plans to nominate Petro as its candidate, while the coalitions of the right and center will determine their cards from a range of ten names.

Petro, former mayor of Bogotá, 61 years old and who laid down his arms in 1990, dominates the voting intention in all the polls.

Still overshadowed by the partisan consultations, the legislatures will measure the mood of the voters for May 29, when they will return to the polls to decide the successor of the unpopular Iván Duque, who will complete his four-year term on August 7 without the right to vote. re-election.

“We want citizens to come out en masse today (…) the triumph of democracy is also a rejection of violence,” declared the president.

And on the table, several concerns: the impoverishment and unemployment triggered by the pandemic, the upsurge in violence that followed the peace agreement with the extinct FARC – also a target of attacks after its disarmament – and insecurity in large cities.

In addition, the echoes of last year’s massive protests still resonate, which were harshly repressed and uncovered deep social unrest.

Punishment vote?

Dominated by right-wing forces and traditional parties, Congress is the most discredited institution in the country. Corruption scandals plunged him into disapproval: 86% of Colombians had an unfavorable image of him until last year, according to the Invamer pollster.

The Democratic Center, the party in power and the most voted for the Senate in 2018, is exposed to punishment at the polls due to the performance of Duque, whose unpopularity is around 70%.

Unlike the last legislative ones, this time the right does not have its biggest voter: former president Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010), the most influential politician of this century and who had to resign from the Senate after obtaining the largest number of votes in 2018 due to his problems with the law for alleged witness tampering.

Very surely “the Democratic Center is going to stop being the first force” although it will continue to have an “important participation”, says Vargas.

Faced with the probable setback of Uribismo, the leftist coalition that supports Petro and the center forces could advance.

With the results of the partisan consultations, the presidential competition will start firmly. So far the campaign has revolved around the figure of Petro and his ambitious reform plan.

Very present in the public square as well as on social networks, the senator, who lost the ballot with Duque in 2018, hopes to meet his rivals this Sunday.

On the center-right the favorite is the former mayor of Medellín Federico Gutiérrez (47 years old) and in the center coalition the bets are divided between the former governor Sergio Fajardo and the liberal Alejandro Gaviria.

The main deck of presidential candidates is completed by former Minister Óscar Iván Zuluaga, from the Democratic Center; the independent Rodolfo Hernández and Ingrid Betancourt, the former candidate and hostage of the FARC.

peace in the shade

Under a broad military and police device, these elections have as a novelty the election of the 16 representatives of the victims precisely in the rural areas most affected by the armed conflict.

Those who prevail at the polls will occupy the transitional peace seats, arising from the 2016 agreement with the dissolved Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

“Four years ago the country was much more polarized around the issue of peace, that of course is in the distance: neither in the candidates nor in society is it a priority,” notes Vargas.

The army deployed some 33,000 troops near the border with Venezuela and in other points where the armed groups operate.

Meanwhile Comunes, the party formed by the ex-guerrillas, faces its own test. Although the peace agreement guarantees them 10 seats until 2026, the former rebels are running for these elections to measure their acceptance after the disaster four years ago, when they obtained 0.3% of the vote.