German media: A quick embargo on Russian gas and oil is promoted by Poland with a handful of countries

Sanctions against Russia will be one of the topics of the EU summit, which begins on Thursday evening in Versailles. However, it is already a foregone conclusion that the EU will not decide on an embargo on Russian gas and oil these days. In the preparatory talks of EU diplomats in Brussels, only Poland and the three Baltic states are actively supporting the swift withdrawal of gas from Russia, according to our information.

In the case of oil, the imbalance between the spokesmen and opponents of the ban on imports from Russia is not that huge, but also in the case of this oil, the resistance – supported by quite a number of other countries – Italy and Germany – is staunch.

Shut off gas and oil, but gradually

According to the current plans, the leaders of the 27 EU countries should commit themselves in Versailles to a “phase out” of the EU’s dependence on Russian gas, oil and coal imports. In all likelihood, it will not be possible to set a target date for this “withdrawal” in Versailles. During the discussions in Brussels on the eve of the summit, the Greeks and Slovaks proposed to replace “gradual withdrawal” with a commitment to “reduce” dependence on Russia. And the Germans, backed by Hungarians on this point, are promoting “a significant reduction”.

“Anyway, it’s about following the European Commission’s latest proposal to accelerate the Green Deal and diversify gas supplies,” explains an EU official involved in the preparations for the summit.

The European Commission on Tuesday unveiled plans – difficult and costly – to reduce Russian gas imports to the EU by as much as two-thirds by the end of this year and to become independent from energy resources from Russia “well before the end of this decade”. The EU institutions are also analyzing ideas for a gradual reduction in purchases of Russian oil (and coal), for example by tightening import limits month by month or through sanctions. Europe is incomparably more dependent on energy resources from Russia than the United States, which is the main reason for the EU’s sanctions restraint in this matter.

What to promise on accession to the EU?

Representatives of EU governments in the EU Council already on Monday sent – submitted last week – membership applications from Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova for an opinion by the European Commission. Usually, for example, in the case of the Western Balkan countries, several months passed from submitting the application for admission to the EU (i.e. at this stage for granting the status of a candidate country). So we can already speak – as some diplomats in Brussels argue – about a certain acceleration. Although it is difficult to predict how long the European Commission will take to prepare an opinion on membership applications, which in the past took even one and a half years.

However, these procedural nuances remain overshadowed by the fundamental dispute as to whether the European Union will be able – in the form of a political declaration – to unequivocally promise Ukraine an “open door”. The Versailles summit is unlikely to deal with Moldova and Georgia, which are even further away from serious prospects for membership than Kyiv. The latest draft of the Versailles declaration, which we have learned, does not suit Poland and other spokesmen for the ambitious EU promises for Ukrainians.

The draft declaration resembles the provisions of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement that the European Council “recognizes the European aspirations and the European choice of Ukraine” (“European” does not mean “EU”). And he adds that, awaiting the opinion of the European Commission on the membership application, “we will continue to strengthen our ties and deepen our partnership.”

– This text may turn out to be one of the turbulent points of the Versailles summit. It will also be a debate as to whether and how the Union should still expand – explains our interlocutor from the EU institutions.

More economic information

Poland, as well as Lithuania, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Ireland and Slovenia would like to immediately grant Ukraine the status of a member state, which, however, now seems impossible. On the other hand, a much larger group of EU countries manage to gather in the face of the postulate to clearly tell Ukraine that the recognition of its “European aspirations” should be understood as “EU aspirations”. This could be done by adding to the Versailles declaration a reference to – describing the accession process – Article 49 of the EU Treaty.

– It’s about a message that ordinary Ukrainians would understand – explain supporters of this option. However, incl. France, Germany and the Netherlands are still very skeptical about making Ukraine’s promises of future, even very distant, membership in the European Union.

Where do these resistance from some EU countries to the “open door” for Ukraine come from? – First, concerns about the domestic public opinion reluctant to enlarge the Union. Second, sticking to the precedence of the Western Balkans on the road to accession. Third, the events in Ukraine. If the country survives the war, it will have to be rebuilt with our help. And only then talk about accession – this is how the views of states reluctant to “open doors” are presented by one of the Western European ambassadors in Brussels. It is possible that the French will, as an alternative, promote the prospect of a strengthened association between Ukraine and the EU, which is – as it is now put in Brussels jargon – “an association agreement plus, plus, plus”.

Fourth package of restrictions

The Versailles Summit is expected to declare its readiness to “apply further sanctions promptly if the need arises.” And the EU has already approved today another, fourth package of restrictions against Russia, and Belarus by the way.

Three Belarusian banks have been cut off from the SWIFT system, and the EU is also hitting the Belarusian central bank.

Another 14 Russian oligarchs and businessmen (or their family members) and 146 senators, who voted in the Russian Federation Council in favor of recognizing the statehood of Donbas separatists, were added to the “black list” with entry bans and frozen assets in the EU. The restrictions also apply to the export of certain technologies and equipment used in maritime transport to Russia.