How can the United States help Ukraine without the war degenerating?

The United States is convinced that the war started by Russia will drag on and wants to help Kiev to resist, but always limiting the conflict to Ukraine to prevent it from degenerating into a “Third World War”.

Washington’s military strategy is to stick to those demands, according to statements by US leaders and interviews conducted by AFP with officials who have asked to remain anonymous.

The war in Ukraine “may not be over soon,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken estimated during a tour of Europe.

US intelligence initially feared a blitzkrieg that would bring down Kiev within days.

But the Pentagon quickly found “delays” in the battle plans, due to logistical problems and a “resistance” more “creative” than expected.

The US military is quite pessimistic in the short term, due to the massive effect of the Russian assault. Because “we must not underestimate” the “firepower” of Moscow, sums up a US defense official.

Putin “doomed to lose”

The situation “will probably get worse before it gets better,” warned Antony Blinken. But Vladimir Putin “is doomed to lose,” he settled.

Privately, US officials go further, not hesitating to claim that the Russian president has already lost. And based on this they adapt his strategy.

The priority: to continue massively helping the Ukrainian resistance to hold on, even if the cities begin to fall.

The Americans have established a “considerable exchange of information and intelligence with Ukraine”, explains a diplomat, mainly to allow anti-aircraft defense to thwart some of the Russian attacks.

An unprecedented $350 million (€322 million) of military aid announced at the end of February has already been delivered, much of it to the Ukrainian military in the form of Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.

The United States will now disburse a new item of at least US $ 10,000 million (9,200 million euros), which includes an economic and a humanitarian section, as well as more weapons and ammunition.

It will be “unlimited” military aid as long as it is not heavy weapons, promises a US official.

Because the great fear of the Americans is that Putin will feel “provoked” and extend the war beyond Ukraine, with the risk of a direct, potentially nuclear, confrontation with the United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ( NATO). Therefore, it is about “containing the Russian president”, say several US officials.

Red line

Another official sums up that red line like this: “We don’t want World War III.”

Even before the Russian invasion, President Biden had warned that any direct involvement in Ukraine would spark “a world war” and issued orders to prevent it, limiting the ability of the US to intervene.

Washington focuses, therefore, on preventive and dissuasive deployments of soldiers in allied countries at Russia’s gates and rules out any option that Putin may interpret as an escalation to prevent a NATO country from being considered by Moscow as ” co-belligerent” with Ukraine.

If the Russians attack the forces of a member state of the Transatlantic Alliance, everyone else, including the United States, would have to come to their military aid in the name of sacrosanct Article 5 of the treaty that Biden has pledged to uphold.

Both the United States and NATO rule out establishing a no-fly zone over the attacked country, which Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski is clamoring for.

And it is that to impose it, the Alliance planes would have to shoot down the Russian fighters, and “this could lead to a total war,” explained Blinken.

For the same reason, the United States seems unconvinced that Eastern European countries like Poland will hand over to Kiev Soviet-made fighter jets that Ukrainian forces know how to fly.

“Exit Doors”

Biden’s team, initially reluctant to this hypothesis, ended up accepting, at the Ukrainian insistence, that it will examine it “actively”, but without a calendar or a firm commitment.

Some fear that this is enough for the war to degenerate, without noticeably changing the relationship of forces in the air.

Demands for more direct intervention are likely to grow as images of civilian casualties shock public opinion, but Washington insists on standing its ground.

That is, to increase the pressure on the Kremlin by means of sanctions, in the hope that Putin will come to the conclusion that continuing the war is more costly for him than withdrawing.

For this, it is necessary to keep diplomatic channels open to offer him “exit doors”.

The Americans have ceased high-level contacts with the Russians since February 24, but they want others to do so.

This is what explains Israel’s attempt at mediation or Blinken’s call to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, at a time when China, which boasts of its “unlimited” friendship with Russia, does not rule out mediation.