Gabriel Boric: complex scenario awaits the next Chilean president

The elected president of Chile, Gabriel Boric, who will assume power next Friday, will begin his government in the framework of the most complex political and economic situation experienced by his country since the return to democracy in 1990.

Boric, 36, a deputy for the leftist Broad Front, is one of several former university leaders who led massive protests in 2011. Although many expect that as of this week he will lead the greatest political changes in Chile’s recent history, analysts consulted by The Associated Press agreed that Boric will have the challenge of facing a local and international situation not experienced by any of his five predecessors. .

“The situation that this new government will experience, regardless of its intentions, is the most difficult since the return to democracy”, said the academician Gonzalo Valdés, director of the Public Policy Center of the Andrés Bello University. For his part, the doctor in American studies, Marcelo Mella, indicated that the context that awaits Boric, ”It is like a situation of perfect storm, of high complexity”.

Both stressed that among the most serious problems that Chile will face are the uncontrolled immigration that Chile is experiencing on its northern border with Bolivia and Peru, and the violence and arson attacks that are recorded almost daily in the southern regions of Biobío and La Araucanía, where Mapuche indigenous groups are pressing for the return of their ancestral lands.

In recent times, especially in 2021, thousands of undocumented foreigners entered through unauthorized border crossings in the north, settling in makeshift camps.

After multiple protests and blockades of avenues and highways against unauthorized immigration, outgoing President Sebastián Piñera imposed a state of emergency in February that allowed hundreds of soldiers to be added to border surveillance and began a “redirection” of immigrants, that is, return them to the country from which they came.

This week the army began digging a trench some 300 meters long and three meters deep on the border with Bolivia.

In the south, Píñera imposed a state of emergency last October that made it possible for some 2,000 soldiers to accompany the police, who were overwhelmed by the violent events that take place almost daily, with the burning of trucks, machinery of forestry companies and some houses, in addition to some murders.

According to the Global Terrorism Index, from the Institute for Economics and Peace, Chile ranks 18th out of 163 countries with ”362 terrorist attacks“, the majority “are attributed to extremist Mapuche Indians”, he points out. In addition to territorial and autonomy claims, there is wood theft and drug trafficking and organized crime in the area, according to the outgoing government.

Mella recalled the devastation Piñera faced upon assuming his first term (2010-2014) after an 8.8-magnitude earthquake occurred two weeks before his arrival. Although very dramatic, “It is not comparable to the situation of unrest, mistrust, economic informality and the conflicts in the north and south of the country.” that the country lives today.

Boric, who won the far-right José Antonio Kast with 56% of the vote in the second electoral round in December, said during his electoral campaign that he will lead an agreement with the governments of the region to “establish quotas for countries and worthy transits”. And regarding the violence in the south, he affirms that a solution will be sought through dialogue with all actors, including those who protest with violent actions.

To the security problems in the north and south of the country are added, among others, unleashed inflation not seen in more than 15 years, the rise of the dollar and the sharp increase in the price of oil pushed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine .

Chile is the third country with the highest consumption of crude oil in the region, which imports almost all of it, and the situation will hit the cost of gasoline and will be transferred to the entire supply chain. Copper, meanwhile, the largest Chilean export, registered at the beginning of the week the highest value since there are records, as a result of the war.

“It will be very difficult to overcome these problems in the short term while maintaining the support of the population, and that will mean that it will be difficult for the government to manage the agenda,” added Valdés.

Militant of Social Convergence —one of the various groups of the Broad Front, created in 2017— Boric competed for the presidency on behalf of Approve Dignidad, a bloc formed by the Communist Party and the FA. Most of the members of the latter group lack government experience.

His electoral coalition will be a minority in Congress, with 37 of the 155 deputies and five of the 50 senators, forcing him to appoint several center-left ministers and deputy ministers to win their support in Congress. However, he is still three votes short of a simple majority. The above will force Boric to “moderate and prioritize your proposals” in parliament, Mella said.

A Constituent Convention, born after a plebiscite that followed a social outbreak in October 2019, writes a Magna Carta intended to replace the one imposed in 1980 by the military dictatorship (1973-1990) and has the full support of the future president towards the conventional leftists who dominate the body.

Among the proposals, which seem to have a majority among the constituents, is one that seeks to eliminate the Senate. If this does not happen and it remains in force for another eight years, “it could be that (Boric) could not achieve his goals” of approving multiple bills, Valdés said. The draft Constitution must go through a plebiscitation during the second semester and its approval is seen by many as a measurement of his government.

Boric’s priority will be to seek the approval of a tax reform to collect five points of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the four years of his government. If he fails, he will not be able to finance most of his proposals, which include universal social rights, a structural reform to make health care equal, create 500,000 female jobs, increase pensions and a 40-hour work week.

Chile recovered the economic activity prior to the pandemic and in 2021 grew by 12%, driven by runaway consumption due to great liquidity as a result of three withdrawals from pension funds for US$ 50,000 million, while for this year it would grow around 1.5 % and between 0% and 1% in 2023.

Accumulated inflation in 2021 reached 7.2%, the highest in 14 years. Last January registered an increase of 1.2%, with an accumulated 7.7% in 12 months.

“Clearly it is going to be a government that is going to function under strong pressure (and) it is not going to have time for a honeymoon, as has historically been the case in Chile.”, when public opinion is more condescending during the first months of government, sentenced Mella.