Expert sees little risk to Western Europe if Russia cuts off gas flow

Western European countries would look “relatively unaffected” If Russia were to cut off the gas supply, they have terminals to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) from other suppliers, said analyst Aura Sabadus, from the ICIS company, a specialist in energy markets.

Sabadus responded to the press at an event organized by the Ukrainian Institute in London, in which he maintained that he would not particularly affect supply, although he would affect prices, due to a reduction in the supply of Russian oil, since it could be obtained from other producers like “Iran or Venezuela”.

A gas cut-off by Russia would have an impact above all on Eastern European states, including Ukraine, which have “less access to terminals and more historical dependence” on the neighboring power, he warns.

The effect between the 27 members of the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom would be uneven, both because of their different degree of dependence on imports via gas pipeline from Russia and because of their different capacity to import gas by ship in the form of LNG.

“Cutting off the gas, of course, would also hurt Russia, because ultimately with the proceeds from its sale they finance this war”, pointed out the expert.

For European consumers, the biggest risk in the short term would be if Russia were to stop gas supplies in the coming days, when it is forecast to be cold and therefore “there is an increase in demand”, although the impact would also depend on whether the cut was partial or total.

Among indications that, partly due to the sanctions, Russia could default on its sovereign debt payment as early as April, another risk for energy supply would be if the state gas company Gazprom remained in “a precarious financial situation” not being able to receive payments, says the specialist. “It is a situation that must be closely monitored.“, warning.

Sabadus warned of two other risky circumstances in Ukraine.

On the one hand, the attacks by the Russian Army on nuclear plants, which, in addition to posing a danger to their workers, environmental contamination and radioactive risk, could be used to “blackmail” to the international community, he said.

On the other hand, Ukraine has been operating its electricity autonomously for days after disconnecting from the Russian network and waiting to join the European network, which is expected to happen imminently, in a process that, in an extreme case, could generate a big blackout