4 keys to understanding the chaotic situation in Sudan after the military seizure of power

The coup sparked protests in several cities across the country, including the capital Khartoum, and at least 10 people have died in the unrest.

The military coup in Sudan is the latest crisis in a turbulent period for the African country.

The leader of the coup, the general Abdel Fattah al Burhan, dissolved the civilian government on Monday, ordered the arrest of political leaders and declared a state of emergency in the country.

Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and members of his cabinet were arrested.

The coup sparked protests in several cities across the country, including the capital Khartoum, and at least 10 people have died in the riots.

The capital’s airport is closed, international flights suspended until Saturday and internet dropped.

General Al Burhan said at a press conference on Tuesday that the army took power “To avoid a civil war”and he tried to justify the coup by internal political struggles.

Al Burhan announced that he is keeping the ousted prime minister in his own home, who he said is “safe, in good health and kept away for his own safety.”

The general added that the politician will be released in the next few days.

The coup has alarmed many international powers that have only just begun to forge relations with Sudan after years of isolation.

The United Nations Security Council is holding an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss the situation in the African country.

1. What is the background to the coup?

In the midst of political tensions, Sudan is experiencing a deep economic crisis, with high inflation and food, fuel and medicine shortages.

Civil and military leaders they shared power since August 2019, after then-President Omar al Bashir was overthrown by the army.

Massive street demonstrations demanding civilian rule forced the military to negotiate a plan to rule jointly.

The country was in that transition, with civilian and military leaders co-leading the country in a joint committee known as the Sovereign Council and led by General Al Burhan.

But the disagreement between the two sectors has been public.

2. What’s behind the tension?

There have been several failed coups since 2019. The most recent occurred last month.

Military leaders in the transitional government demanded reforms from their civilian counterparts and called for the cabinet to be replaced, which was interpreted by civilian leaders as an attempt to seize power.

The main civil figure, Prime Minister Hamdok, blamed this tension on Al Bashir loyalists, many of whom are in the military, security services and other state institutions.

In recent weeks groups of pro-army protesters have been bussed to Khartoum, while spontaneous counter-protests in support of the prime minister have emerged.

The main source of discontent for supporters of the military is Hamdok’s measures to reform the economy (including reducing fuel subsidies), which have been unpopular to many.

Sudan’s political fragility has a long precedent.

In past decades, the breakdown of political parties and their ability to build consensus has paved the way for the military to intervene and organize. coups d’état under the pretext of restoring the previous order.

Today in Sudan there are at least 80 political parties.

This same fractionation plagued the Sovereign Council, where internal divisions between military and civilians drove the political consensus even further.

3. How has the international community reacted?

The African Union (of which Sudan is a member), the United Nations and the European Union, as well as the Arab League and the United States, have expressed their deep concern over the coup and have demanded the immediate release of all arrested political leaders.

The UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, pointed out that Sudan is in the midst of an “epidemic of coups d’état” affecting countries in Africa and Asia and urged the world’s powers to join together to “effectively dissuade” these acts. through the UN Security Council.

Meanwhile, the United States has suspended $ 700 million in aid to Sudan and the EU has threatened to do the same. Both demand that civil government be restored without conditions.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the military’s actions “are a betrayal of the peaceful revolution in Sudan.”

4. What can happen?

General Al Burhan, who led the Sovereign Council, noted that Sudan remains committed to the transition to civilian rule and that elections are scheduled for July 2023.

According to reports coming from the country, Central Bank staff have gone on strike and doctors across the country refuse to work in military hospitals except in emergencies.

According to Alex de Waal, an expert analyst on African issues, the coup is not necessarily a “fait accompli”, given Sudan’s “tremendous capacity for civic mobilization”.

Every time the military has tried to outmaneuver, “the streets mobilized and pushed them back,” De Waal said on the BBC program. Newshour.

According to the Facebook page of the Ministry of Information, the prime minister has called on people to come out to support the government.

Images and reports from Khartoum show protesters in the city.

The military has also been deployed to restrict the movement of people.

In June 2019, before the democratic transition was agreed, soldiers opened fire on protesters in Khartoum, killing at least 87 people.

An “announced coup”

Analysis by Anne Soy, BBC Africa Senior Correspondent

In recent weeks there has been a rapid rise in tension in Khartoum.

A hostile takeover is what many in Sudan and beyond have feared could happen at any moment. The signs were too clear.

A promilitar protest just in front of the presidential palace in Khartoum was seen as a choreography to lead the coup. No attempt was made to disguise its purpose. The protesters demanded that the military topple “failed” civilian leaders.

It was an unusual attempt to legitimize a military takeover, under the guise of a popular protest.

Almost a week later, a counter-protest was held. This time, large crowds demonstrated in support of the civilian government.

With more protests called by pro-democracy groups to “counter a military coup,” Sudan could be poised for another period of confrontation between the armed forces and the people.

The country made great strides in normalizing ties with the West and unlocking much-needed sources of funding.

The promise of the transition to democracy has kept many Sudanese and allies of the country hopeful.

But all of that could be at risk now.

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