Putin: Unstable temperament or cunning manipulator?

For two decades, Vladimir Putin has been seen by his rivals as reckless and impulsive. Now that he has ordered the invasion of Ukraine and put Russia’s nuclear forces on standby, many in the West are wondering if he is dangerously unstable.

In recent days, Putin has been incoherent when talking about Ukraine on television, has repeated conspiracy theories about neo-Nazis and alleged aggression from the West, has scolded his own head of foreign intelligence services on camera, from the other side of a Kremlin hall where he appeared alone.

With Western sanctions threatening to further weaken an already faltering Russian economy, Putin has placed his nuclear weapons on high alert in response to the sanctions and what he describes as “aggressive statements against our country.”

Uncertainty about what he thinks adds to the confusion surrounding the invasion of Ukraine. Western authorities must assess the extent to which he understands, or is interested in, the cataclysm he can unleash. Perhaps he is exploiting the image that has been held of him for a long time.

An aide to French President Emmanuel Macron, who spoke to Putin by phone on Monday, said the Russian leader responded to Macron “without getting irritated, in a very cool and firm way.”

“It is obvious that, with President Putin’s mental state, there is a danger that things will escalate,” said the adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity, following a practice of the French Presidency. “There is a danger of manipulation by President Putin to justify the unjustifiable.”

Numerous leaders have tried to puzzle out Putin’s thinking and been wrong in the past. In this crisis Putin is exhibiting the same characteristics that he has shown since he took over the leadership of Russia. He has ordered invasions of his neighbors, promoted conspiracy theories and falsehoods, and launched bold operations such as interference in the last two US presidential elections.

He ordered historic measures such as the annexation of Crimea in 2014, after consulting only with his inner circle of KGB veterans. He has long surrounded himself with figures who are unwilling to compromise his careers by recommending caution, much less disagreeing with him.

He has spoken of nuclear war in the past and once said that if a conflict of that magnitude broke out, the Russians would go “to heaven as martyrs.”

Some experts believe that Putin may be using the possibility of a nuclear conflict to weaken growing support for Ukraine and force concessions. His latest comments, on the other hand, hint that the sanctions are having an effect.

“They’re an indication that we’re messing with it,” said Jim Townsend, a former US deputy defense secretary and fellow at the Center for a New American Security. “We have to keep that in mind and stay calm.”

A US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity for commenting on what the administration thinks, said intelligence services believe Putin may be acting impulsively, fueled by old grievances.

Macron recently met with Putin and spoke with him on the phone several times before the invasion. A French official declared that Putin “is not the same as before”, that he seems “more rigid and isolated”.

That is precisely the impression generated by videos of Putin’s meetings with foreign dignitaries and his own aides, in which he is seen at the end of a long table. In those talks, no Russian official contradicted him.

“We are concerned (that) this isolated individual has become a megalomaniac and is considered the only historical figure who can reconstruct the old Russia or recreate the notion of the Soviet sphere,” said Democratic US Senator Mark Warner, who chairs the intelligence committee of the upper house.

Putin always wanted to regain lost glory, suppress opposition and keep neighbors in Moscow’s orbit. In 2005 he argued that the fall of the Soviet Union had been “the worst geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

Russia has waged war with Georgia, annexed Ukraine’s Crimea region, supported separatists in eastern Ukraine and briefly mobilized soldiers this year to quell protests in Kazakhstan.

Putin says that “the United States overstepped its borders in a thousand ways. Proof of this are the economic, political, cultural and educational measures that it imposes on other nations.”

Dmitry Medvedev, the Putin man who held the presidency when Putin was unable to run again as his term expired, warned in 2019 that if the West sidelined Russia from the Swift financial system, it would amount to a declaration of war.

The West left major Russian banks out of the Swift and the ruble plunged.

In 2018, Putin said that Russia would never start a nuclear conflict, but speculated that it would respond to an imminent enemy attack. Smirking, he added: “We would be victims of aggression and go to heaven as martyrs. And they would just die, without even having time to repent.”