The crisis in Ukraine shows the limits of India’s “neutrality”

The Russian invasion of Ukraine upsets India’s traditional policy of balance between Western countries and Russia and puts New Delhi in a difficult diplomatic situation, experts say.

Last week India, like China and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution condemning Russian “aggression” against Ukraine.

Russia, which vetoed the resolution using the power conferred by its status as a permanent member of the Security Council, praised New Delhi’s “independent and balanced” stance.

But that position, which India hoped would be perceived as a show of neutrality, was interpreted by many countries as de facto support for Russia.

There are also reports that India wants to push through a currency trade pact with Russia, which could undermine efforts by Western countries to isolate Moscow from the global financial system.

This crisis places India in an age-old dilemma. During the Cold War, Indian diplomacy was very close to the Soviet Union, which left its traditional enemy, Pakistan, in the Western camp.

These fluid links survived the fall of the Iron Curtain, and Russia remains its largest arms supplier.

India needs the support of Westerners against China and its leader Xi Jinping – who seeks to extend his influence in the Indian Ocean – amid disputes between the two countries that in 2020 caused deadly clashes.

Along with the United States, Japan and Australia, the country is part of the Quad Alliance, which is designed to counter China’s growing influence in the region.

His decision to abstain from Friday’s UN vote left India in the same camp as China.

“India doesn’t have many options,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan, an expert at the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank.

The country “is as interested in its relationship with Russia as it is in maintaining the relationship with the United States,” he said.

Unnikrishna explained that in the maritime field the country faces challenges for which it needs the United States and on the continent it requires the help of Russia.

bear hug

Putin visited India last year, in an unusual trip, and once in the country he was full of effusiveness, even hugging Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as a sign of a strengthening of military and energy ties.

India is the world’s second largest buyer of arms, behind Saudi Arabia and according to Business Standard, between 2016 and 2020, 49.4% of arms imports came from Russia.

Late last week Russia began delivering an S-400 missile defense system that India has agreed to buy for $5 billion in 2018, despite the threat of US sanctions.

At a time when New Delhi seeks to develop its own weapons capabilities and diversify supplies, US imports account for only 11%.

India – with a population of 1.4 billion people – is highly dependent on Russian oil. Bilateral trade amounts to nearly US$9 billion, with more modest items in other sectors such as the pharmaceutical industry, tea and coffee that India exports to Russia.

Diplomatically, Russia consistently vetoes all UN resolutions condemning India for its actions in Kashmir, where there has been a violent insurgency for decades.

For Happymon Jacob of Jawaharlal Nehru University, Russia is the “only consistent partner” of the country north of its territory.

A conflict between East and West

At a time when New Delhi aspires to a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, a role that implies greater responsibility in the world concert, it has to exercise caution and avoid explicitly condemning Russia.

So far he has avoided referring to Moscow’s operations as an invasion, referring instead to local aspects of the crisis, such as the evacuation of Indian students from Ukraine.

The United States has not openly expressed its anger, instead saying the two countries “have a relationship” that Washington does not have with India and calling on Delhi to use its “influence” with Moscow.

But former officials have been more explicit, with former US diplomat Richard Haass, for example, calling India’s policy “a careful response to avoid angering Putin at all costs.”

He also stated that the country “is still not ready to rise as a responsible power and as a reliable partner.”

According to analyst Sanjaya Baru, Western countries should take a more lenient view of India’s ties with Russia, precisely because of its role in confronting China.

“Only an India that is dynamic can counter China’s aggressiveness,” he wrote in the Times of India newspaper.

“There is no reason why India should take sides in a conflict that is essentially East versus West, centered on Europe and the continuation of the Cold War,” he added.