IMF sees strong fundamentals for global recovery, warning of big downside risks

Extraordinary policy measures led by Group of 20 economies and COVID-19 vaccines are underpinning a global economic recovery, but new variants of the virus, inflation, and supply chain disruptions pose downside risks. said the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In a blog post on Wednesday, ahead of Friday’s meeting of the Finance and Health ministers of the G-20, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged bold action now to end the pandemic and create space for a more sustainable economy.

The IMF this month cut its forecast for global growth for 2021 to 5.9% from the 6% forecast in July, citing nagging supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures. He also indicated that the modest revision masked large downgrades for some countries.

Georgieva He said the G-20 countries could boost their prospects through 2022 by carefully calibrating their own monetary and fiscal policies.

The implementation of reforms that improve growth, such as programs to support job search and training, as well as the reduction of regulatory barriers to the entry of new companies, could boost the aggregate real gross domestic product in the countries of the G -20 at about $ 4.9 trillion through 2026, he stated

He also indicated that joint action is needed to provide some $ 20 billion in additional grants for tests, treatments, medical supplies and vaccines to end the pandemic and deliver the doses already promised.

To help developing countries cope financially, the G-20 nations should also accelerate the implementation of the Common Framework for Debt Treatment so that vulnerable countries are not forced to choose between paying and providing health care. .

Incentives for debtors, early engagement with everyone, including the private sector, and faster deadlines for debt resolution would also make the Common Framework more effective and attractive, he said.

The countries of G-20 They should also act soon to channel part of their newly allocated special drawing rights, or emergency reserves, to the Trust Fund for Growth and Poverty Reduction in the United States. IMF, he pointed.

He also asked the leaders of the G-20 commit to a comprehensive package to achieve net zero carbon emissions by mid-century.

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