How difficult will it be for Ukraine to defend itself now that an attack from Russia has begun?
Ukraine is outgunned and outnumbered, following a major investment and modernization in Russia’s armed forces by President Vladimir Putin.
Jack Watling, a military specialist at the Royal United Services Institute in the United Kingdom, believes that “the Ukrainians are in a very difficult position.” He has just returned from Ukraine and says the country’s military leaders are now facing some “very difficult decisions”.
Western officials estimated that Russia had as many as 190,000 troops on the border, far more than the entire 125,600-strong Ukrainian regular army.
And Russian forces are already crossing the border from multiple points.
Ukraine will find it difficult to defend the thousands of kilometers of its border, from Belarus in the north to Crimea in the south. If you think of Ukraine as a clock face, the russians can mount attacks from 10 to 7 o’clock.
Ben Barry of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and a former British Army Brigadier says it is a “very difficult position for a defender”.
Added to that, Ukraine is being threatened in multiple directions and its forces are “widely spread out,” adds Watling.
Russia’s dominance in the air
The real disparity between the Russian and Ukrainian forces is in air capability.
Ukraine has 105 fighter jets on the border compared to Russia’s 300, says Watling. The Russians, he predicts, “will gain air superiority very quickly.”.
Russia’s advanced air defense systems, such as S-400 missiles, also give its forces an advantage. Conversely, Ukraine has older and more limited air defenses.
Watling gives the example of Israel, which can defend itself from multiple directions. But he adds that he has only been able to do it because of his superiority in the air. That is something Ukraine simply does not have.
Moscow has developed its own version of “shock and awe” with integrated air artillery, missiles and long-range rockets, says Ben Barry.
This allows the Russians target Ukraine’s command and control centers, ammunition depots, air force and air defenses from afar.
That already appears to have started, with cruise missile attacks on targets near the capital Kiev.
Watling says the Russians have a very significant arsenal of modern weapons and capabilities for which Ukraine has no answer, such as the Iskander cruise and ballistic missile systems.
Ukraine has recently received supplies of “lethal aid” from the US and UK, but these are mostly short-range air-to-air missiles and anti-tank weapons.
In short, Russia outguns and outdistances Ukraine.
Reported explosions near major cities in Ukraine
With Russia’s air superiority and long-range weapons, the danger for Ukraine’s forces is that they will soon be pinned down.
Ukraine’s forces could be prevented from maneuvering and repositioning to meet the Russian advance from any other direction, Watling believes.
Many of Ukraine’s best-trained and best-equipped units are in the east of the country, near the line of control in Luhansk and Donetsk, where fighting has taken place since 2014.
Western intelligence officials told the BBC that there is a real concern that Russia may try to surround them.
However, Ukraine’s armed forces are better trained and equipped than when Russia invaded Crimea.
Barry says the units and soldiers have gained useful battle experience fighting Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country.
But he adds that they have been primarily involved in linear trench warfare and that the demands of “maneuver warfare” will be much more difficult.
Russia’s forces can move quickly with mobile rocket and missile launchers and air defenses. And they have also become battle hardened by his invasion of Crimea and in Syria.
Fighting in the cities
If the fighting reaches Ukraine’s towns and cities, that could give Ukrainian forces a chance.
A well-prepared defender can make urban fighting difficult and bloody for any attacker, as demonstrated in Stalingrad in World War II and more recently in Mosul, Iraq.
Barry believes that the Russian forces may initially try to bypass towns and cities. But he adds that it is highly unlikely that the Russians will be able to avoid urban combat, especially in Kievgiven its political importance.
Watling says that if Ukraine can adequately defend its cities, then they could hold out for quite some time.
British-supplied Light Anti-Tank Weapons (also known as NLAWs) can help in close combat, where Ukrainian forces can move using the protection of buildings. An unknown number of civilians could also take up arms.
Russia cannot simply rely on air strikes and artillery to control towns and cities.
But Watling says that Russia already has agents and operatives on the ground. He understands that “there will be subversion and unconventional operations in Kiev to try to destabilize the government.”
Russia, he adds, will also try to surround cities and use long-range artillery to target pockets of resistance and then try to use special forces and agents to “basically assassinate civil society leaders.”
Ukraine is now fighting for its survival.
This former Soviet republic has been in combat with Russian-backed forces in the east for the past eight years, but the threat is now existential to the entire country.
Having recently visited Ukraine, Watling says there is a “grim determination to survive as a country, but there is an acknowledgment that they are outmatched and that it is going to be extremely bloody”.
Source: Eluniverso
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