China, between the “diplomatic solution” and implicit support for Russia

China avoids condemning the attack of Russia to Ukraine while calling for a diplomatic solution to the crisis and emphasizing safeguarding the sovereignty of states, a complicated fit after Chinese President Xi Jinping deepened his alliance with Vladimir Putin just a few weeks ago.

From Beijing, the spokeswoman and assistant foreign minister, Hua Chunying, urged “stay calm” to prevent the situation “from getting out of control”, although she avoided condemning the attack or using the word “invasion” to describe Moscow’s aggression. .

Hours earlier, the Chinese ambassador to the United Nations, Zhang Jun, commented before the last meeting of the Security Council that the Asian country still believes that “the door to a peaceful solution has not yet been closed” while recalling that China defends “the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of states.

China has also taken advantage of these days to attack the role of Washington, questioning its role before and after the Ukrainian crisis.

“Some ask me here today using the word ‘invasion’ to define the situation. What word did you use when the United States unilaterally decided, without any legal basis and without authorization from the United Nations, to attack Afghanistan and Iraq?” Hua launched to the foreign journalists present in the auditorium.

And both the spokespersons and the official Chinese press have insisted this week that the 2015 Minsk Agreements must be implemented and stressed that the situation shows that Russia was left very “dissatisfied” with the fact that what they consider to be their “legitimate concerns” was not answered. of security”.

Prudence without criticizing Moscow

“There is a preference of China for Russia given its strategic interests and the fact that Xi and Putin decided at their meeting on February 5 to support each other and deal jointly with the United States,” the international relations expert and commentator told Efe. television He Lingling.

According to the analyst, that meeting, which took place in Beijing before the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics – which was not attended by any Western head of state – was “the Yalta Conference of the 20th century”.

If at that time the victors of World War II divided up different areas of influence, this time it is about China supporting the role that Russia plays in Europe and Moscow supporting Beijing’s in East Asia, according to He’s thesis.

On why China does not condemn the Russian attack, commentator He responds with a question: “If there is a war in the Taiwan Strait tomorrow, will Russia condemn China if it uses force?”

“China is going to be all cautious about Ukraine. Compared to the Crimean crisis of 2014, in which Beijing remained more neutral, this time there is more closeness with Russia, but we are not going to see any explicit support”, she indicates.

He adds that Beijing is closely monitoring the US response to the Russian moves “to get an indication of how Washington would react to a similar crisis in Taiwan.”

Other analysts, such as Yun Sun, from the Washington-based Stimson Research Center, believe that not everyone in China anticipated an invasion by Russia, and that now Beijing only has to distance itself from the European theater and “not feel responsible or affected by Moscow’s actions to its west.”

“Perhaps if Beijing had known that Putin was going to invade Ukraine, it would have been more careful to align itself so clearly with Russia,” he says, although he agrees that “for Beijing this crisis is a useful distraction, since it will make the United States look away from the Indo-Pacific”.

“But if China aligning itself with Moscow has more costs than benefits, it will reconsider. They both share their opposition to the United States, but they also have very different views of the world, ”she points out.

Sanctions under review

“The problem here is NATO. Its expansion into the Russian West is something that Russia cannot afford, but no one in the West seems to care about this. As a result, Putin uses a language that everyone can understand, force. If Washington had listened, we would not be in the situation we are in today, ”he says, recalling that the problem began when Ukraine tried to implement its Euro-Atlantic aspirations in its country’s Constitution.

Until now, the Western response to Russia is through sanctions that, in the eyes of China, will not solve anything.

“Sanctions will hurt the Russian economy, but Moscow has been receiving them for years and hopefully they can survive them. And we must also bear in mind that cooperation outside the dollar framework is already included in our bilateral economic relationship”, comments the expert.

In fact, over the last few days, the yuan, the Chinese national currency, has deepened its appreciation trend against the dollar, to the point of reaching its highest value compared to the US currency since May 2018. .

Analysts at the Chinese investment bank CICC point out that the yuan’s gain against the dollar last week was the biggest in 16 weeks, and they point out that this could be because foreign investors are redirecting funds into Chinese assets to maintain security against the risks of conflict.