Europe is still at war. Russian troops are already bombing residential areas in Ukraine, as the president of the country warned this Friday. Russian military intervention in Ukraine is taking place from different points on the ground and by airsome attacks that have already reached the capital: Kiev. At this point we are faced with the following question: How long will the conflict between Russia and Ukraine last?
Most experts don’t get wet. They dare not put an end date to the conflict. Others yes. Despite this, there is something all of them coincide: the duration of the conflict depends on Putin’s intentions and the United States responseNATO and the European Union.
Maximiliano Fuentes Coderadoctor in Contemporary History and professor at the University of Girona, does not want to get his fingers caught on the question of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. The expert does not dare to point out any date. He thinks he is a very complex conflict. In addition, he remembers that in the First World War, everyone believed that the conflict was going to end in a few months. “They thought that at Christmas it would be over and it lasted four years,” he adds.
For him, the ball is in the court of Europe and the United States: of the retaliation they decide to take, if any. Thus, the expert points out that whatever they decide the conflict between Ukraine and Russia could have consequences on the world map. “If they continue a policy like the years before the Second World War. That is, appeasement and trying to please Putin or if they decide to stand up. They could also opt for stronger sanctions and even by a military intervention of powers that would change the entire political map. We would go into uncharted territory.” In this regard, he points out that China does not seem to intervene. However, he believes that it is a process still open and that, in the event that Russia is able to occupy a part of Ukraine, the door would be opened to other world disagreements: “Such as China and Taiwan.”
The historian Pablo Delgado it also relates China to the current ongoing conflict. This is how she recovers the statements of another historian: Ruth Ferrero-Turrión. She believes that the occupation of Ukraine is a further step in the Sino-Russian strategy to overthrow the geopolitical context of the United States, since the Asian giant has been harassing for years in a very similar way to Taiwan, an ally of the West. Delgado assures that, for this reason, Ukraine and Russia are seen as the “two most advanced pieces in a chess game: right now one is about to eat the other, but there are more behind, and they are not the king.” Thus, the historian adds that the duration of the conflict will depend on the negotiation capacity of the Ukrainian government, as well as of the West, which has sanctions on the table.
For his part, the historian Angel Stonecutter he thinks it will be a quick war. “I don’t think I’ll last more than two months. Between 10 and 40 days,” he notes. The expert is hopeful that it won’t turn into a war of attrition because “It’s a David against Goliath”. The end of the conflict depends on Ukraine bowing its head, on not enter NATO and thus become Putin’s puppet, he points out. Cantero thinks that the powers are going to act with caution and always waiting for events. “The European Union talks about sanctions. I see it very difficult for them to get involved in the mess directly,” he explains.
He also spoke on this matter Manuel Gazapodirector of Global Security Observatory. This Thursday he pointed out in Más Vale Tarde that it is important “to be attentive in relation to what Putin wants” from the point of view of his expansion policy. In addition, he warns that the Putin’s expansionist desires will not stay there. “It is very unlikely that it will not touch a territory belonging to the European Union or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but you have to be really vigilant because early warning systems have been blown up“. In any case, what the expert is convinced of is that the conflict will not last long in the European media.
Jesus A. Nunez Villaverdeco-director of Institute of Studies on Conflicts and Humanitarian ActionHe provides his theory. He believes that the end of Russia would be at the moment in which he puts a soldier in a territory of a NATO country. “I don’t think he’s crazy enough to do it. We are in a very specific scenario, Ukraine, which is a vital interest for Russia, which is not going to leave there empty-handed, but, today, its territorial anxieties stop. there”.
For now, the worst scenario handled by the Government of Spain is the fall of President Zelensky’s government. “A democratically elected government,” Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares said Thursday in El Objective. “The worst case scenario is going back to a very dark time in the history of Europe where some States decided on the future of others, where only governments that were close governments were allowed, transmission belts of some superpowers”, he explained. He assured that Spain is preparing for any scenario. For the moment, it only remains look at those involved in the conflict: Ukraine, Russia, the United States, the European Union and NATO.
Source: Lasexta
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