‘Outcast’ to Westerners, Putin scoffs at being isolated, experts warn

The invasion of Ukraine could turn Vladimir Putin into a “pariah” for the international community, but the Russian president is not afraid of isolation or undermining the international order, experts say.

International condemnations have multiplied since Russian troops invaded Ukraine this Thursday morning.

“Putin is currently seen as the most imminent threat to our system of Western liberal democracy.”, highlights the analyst Timothy Ash, from the financial company Blue Bay Asset.

“It is interesting to listen to Western leaders. There is a real scandal and a lot of emotion. They feel disappointed and threatened by Putin”, which has become “the number one outcast for westerners”, summarizes in a note.

Consequence: “Russia could plunge into political and economic ostracism without precedent and for a long time.subjected to extraordinarily severe sanctions by European countries and the United States, indicates in a tweet Comfort Ero, executive president of the International Crisis Group (ICG), specialized in conflict resolution.

Russia, and therefore Putin, has already suffered from sanctions since Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014, and from the poisoning of opponent Alexei Navalni, but the impression reigns that no measure has had the slightest effect on the Russian president, except to increase his intransigence.

“For a year and a half, the Kremlin has been hastily preparing for the West to impose the harshest possible sanctions.”, highlights the analyst Tatiana Stanovaia, founder of R.Politik, which defines itself as an independent center.

Putin”considers that sanctions are not intended to prevent Russian aggression, but rather to slow down Russia’s development”, he adds.

“Abundant reserves”

And Russia expects a “long-running conflict with the West”, warns Stanovaia.

Faced with such an eventuality, Moscow has long since begun to fill its purse, in particular with its foreign exchange reserves.

“Russia’s abundant foreign currency reserves (some $640 billion), rising oil prices, and its low debt-to-GDP ratio would allow Russia to offset the direct impact of sanctions, even if it eventually had to face a recession”, the analyst of the British investment fund ICG, Oleg Ignatov, tweeted.

However, these measures could turn Russia into a market “pariah, unviable for investors”says Ash, pointing to the fall in Russian stocks this Thursday.

Debacle that the Kremlin said it had “provided”. “In order to make this ’emotional’ period as short as possible, all necessary measures were taken”, indicated his spokesman, Dmitri Peskov.

The Kremlin also downplayed the diplomatic consequences of the Russian invasion. “Of course, we may have problems with some States. But we have had problems with these states even before” of this operation, Peskov hammered.

broken links

According to Ero, the invasion of Ukraine “it is not just a European security crisis.” “The repercussions of this war for global security will be serious and long lasting.”, he warns.

“Obviously, Russia will become a pariah for some time”, predicts Alexander Baunov, an analyst at the American group Carnegie in Moscow. “The longer this operation lasts, the more ties and economic commitments between Russia and other countries will be broken.“, considers.

Diplomatically and economically isolated from the West, Putin could draw closer to other countries, such as China or Iran, which have so far been reluctant to condemn Russia. Even the Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan, was visiting Moscow this Thursday.

Beijing stated this Thursday that “understands the concerns” from Moscow and Tehran denounced the “provocations” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as the root of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

And the Kremlin could eventually count on China to act as a mediator, Ash predicts.