Although in recent weeks tensions between Russia and Ukraine have intensified, the conflict between the two countries is an old acquaintance in international diplomatic efforts. A weak balance of power and interests that can blow up at any time. We analyze the origins of the conflict.
Since 2014, the Donbas region, in eastern Ukraine, has been immersed in a harsh conflict that has already left more than 14,000 fatalities. The annexation of Crimea by Russia on March 18 of that year triggered a series of movements that have turned this war in Ukraine into an international conflict. But we must look back years to analyze the feeling about this region and the interests of Russia.
One of the origins of the conflict is in the historical region of Kievan Rus’, a territory that encompassed parts of present-day Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia in the 9th century. Then it was the federation of the East Slavs, the ethnic majority of Russia and Ukraine: its epicenter was Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and the Russian nationalists They consider it the origin of their history.
It was with the division of territories during World War II that the area under Polish rule and other adjoining regions became part of the socialist republic of Ukraine. This did not originally include Crimea. A strategic region in the north of the Black Sea that was a historical Ukrainian claim. In 1954 the then leader of the Soviet Union heeded this claim and Crimea passed from Russian to Ukrainian hands. In 1991, the collapse of the Soviet Union took place.. In principle, Ukraine maintains a good relationship with Russia, but over time a rapprochement towards the West is taking place, to the point that in 2012 an association agreement between Ukraine and the European Union is drawn up. Russia was then very uncomfortable. The then President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovyk suspended the signing of the agreement at the last moment. It was November 2013.
Then began the movement known as Euromaidan. Hundreds of people crowded the independence square in Kiev calling for the dialogue with the EU to be resumed. Protests and disturbances of a pro-European and nationalist nature, also with the support of extreme right-wing sectors that spread throughout much of the country for several months. There were more than 100 dead until in February 2014 Yanukovych went into exile from Ukraine.
A crisis that was exploited by Russia. Five days later pro-Russian groups supported by Moscow seized the main institutions of Crimea and raised the Russian flag and called for an independence referendum. Later, Putin acknowledged that many of these pro-Russian soldiers actually belonged to the Russian army. This moment marked a critical milestone in relations between Russia and the West.
The Crimean peninsula is of special interest to Russia. In the town of Sevastopol, south of Crimea, there is the main Russian naval base. Until then, Russia paid a fee to Ukraine for being on its territory. In addition, this region had been part of Russian territory for a time, so in Putin’s mind there was a return to the origin, to a territory that was his.
A month later pro-Russian forces seized several areas in eastern Ukraine. Such was the Russian pressure that on May 11 Donetsk and Lugansk republics declared independentalthough they remain unrecognized internationally.
Since the war in Donbas between pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian forces began, NATO has accused NATO of supporting separatists, something Moscow denies. Peace negotiations like the Minsk or Minsk II protocol They tried unsuccessfully to reach a ceasefire. The conflict has continued to ravage eastern Ukraine ever since, leaving thousands of victims. The United Nations warns of the crimes that have occurred since then, of the violation of human rights and a million and a half people who have had to leave their homes.
Geopolitical and economic implications
Russia and Ukraine share, as we have already explained, historical ties. In Ukraine there are citizens who consider themselves Russianspecifically 17% of the population, a percentage that is even higher in the pro-Russian regions: in Crimea reaches 68% of inhabitants who consider themselves Russian and in Donbas, the region in the east of the country that has been in active conflict since 2014, more than 200,000 inhabitants have acquired a Russian passport.
But also there are economic interests involved, such as gasgiven that most of the fuel that heats homes in northeastern Europe comes from Russia and passes through Ukraine, which charges because the fuel passes through its territory.
And it is that Russia is one of the main importers of natural gas to Europe -accounts for approximately 40% of imports -and many of its gas pipelines cross Ukraine to reach the rest of the continent. Moscow is already looking for alternatives so as not to depend so much on Ukraine, but it is also a way of putting pressure on the neighboring country, for whom this is a source of income.
However, important geopolitical interests are also active in this area: Putin does not want Ukraine to join NATO and the Alliance to continue to expand. On the contrary, Moscow wants it to return to its 1997 configuration, which the organization opposes.
Why? Russia understands that it needs a ‘cushion’, a series of states that act as a ‘buffer’ between its borders and those of NATO for a matter of national security. Something that does not happen today, because since the 90s 14 new members have joined NATO and many of them are post-Soviet republics.
Precisely, Russia is trying to recover the hegemony of the post-Soviet space, creating organizations of a political and economic nature, such as the Eurasian Union, and Putin knows that this is not possible without one of the main economies of the former USSR: Ukraine.
What is the situation of the last hours?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the Russian Armed Forces to enter the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, whose independence Russia recognized on Monday. The decree itself signed on Monday by Putin for the recognition of both entities provides for the deployment of Russian soldiers within the framework of a “peacekeeping mission”.
On Friday, the United States reported that there were about 190,000 Russian troops on the borders of Ukraine and in breakaway regions after weeks of continued troop buildup. Meanwhile, Washington and its allies have threatened Moscow with harsh sanctions if Russian troops finally enter territory controlled by Kiev.
Source: Lasexta
Mario Twitchell is an accomplished author and journalist, known for his insightful and thought-provoking writing on a wide range of topics including general and opinion. He currently works as a writer at 247 news agency, where he has established himself as a respected voice in the industry.
