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Ukraine: six key questions about the crisis in Russia and that keeps the world on edge

Ukraine: six key questions about the crisis in Russia and that keeps the world on edge

Despite the fact that the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, has mentioned -on more than one occasion- that he has no intention of attacking Ukraine, for the president of the United States, based on intelligence information, he believes that the president is determined to invade to your neighbor.

The latest BBC World report analyzes what would be generating that just over 150,000 Russian soldiers are positioned near the borders of Ukraine. Which could endanger the entire security structure of Europe.

1.- How serious is the invasion threat?

The report says that for months, the United States claimed that it did not believe that Russia had made a final decision, but on February 18 everything changed and the president Joe Biden he said he now believed that Putin had decided to attack “in the next few days.”

While Russia insists that this will not happen when it has already done so in the past: in 2014, when it seized Crimea.

And also by backing a conflict in the eastern region of Ukraine, Donbas, which includes the youseparatist territories of Donetsk and Lugansk.

2.- What military forces has Russia assembled on the border?

The BBC Mundo mentions that Russia has transferred -according to the United States- more than 150,000 soldiers near the borders that Ukraine has both in Russia and in Belarus.

An American defense official said that between the “40% and 50% are in an attack position”.

Russia alleges that the troops it claims are there because they are carrying out military exercises.

And he says that he has withdrawn some units as the maneuvers have been completed.

Thousands of Russian soldiers have been taking part in joint military exercises in Belarus, a traditional Russian ally that borders Ukraine.

For its part, NATO does not see signs of a Russian de-escalation, but rather a “massive invasion force” ready to attack from Crimea to Belarus.

While Putin reiterates that he wants peace, he has also threatened to “appropriate retaliatory military-technical measures” if their demands are not met “security guarantees”.

While Russia has stepped up its rhetoric, the West believes it is creating a pretext for attack.

3.- Why is Russia threatening Ukraine?

Russia has resisted for a long time – says the BBC World – Ukraine’s rapprochement with European institutions, and NATO in particular.

Their main demand now is that the West guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, a 30-nation defensive alliance.

Ukraine shares borders with both the European Union and Russia, but as a former Soviet republic it has deep social and cultural ties with Russia, and Russian is widely spoken there.

When the Ukrainians deposed their pro-Russian president in early 2014, Russia annexed southern Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and backed separatists who captured large swaths of eastern Ukraine.

Since then, pro-Russian rebels have fought the Ukrainian army in a conflict that has claimed more than 14,000 lives.

4.- How could Russia attack?

While much of the attention is on eastern Ukraine, President Biden has warned that they will attack Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, a city of 2.8 million people.

In the event of an invasion, Russia can mobilize the troops it has in Crimea, Belarus and around Ukraine’s eastern borders.

It is in the rebel-controlled east that an information war with the West is already underway highlighting a series of Russian actions that could be used as a pretext for war.

Separatist leaders this weekend ordered the evacuation of some 700,000 civilians in an area of ​​southern Russia and ordered a full military mobilization.

Ukraine also warned that Russian special forces have planted explosives on key targets in separatist areas and believes the intention is to destabilize the situation.

Russia also has other options, including cyber attacks.

As many as 70 Ukrainian government websites went down in January and then two of Ukraine’s largest banks were attacked in mid-February.

Russia has so far only threatened military-technical measures if its demands are not met.

But what that means is unclear as it could involve imposing restrictions on Ukraine, such as an exclusion zone, blocking its ports, or transferring nuclear weapons to neighboring Belarus.

5.- What does Putin want?

BBC Mundo recalls that Russia has said that it is the “moment of truth” to reformulate its relationship with NATO and has highlighted three demands.

First, he wants a legally binding promise that NATO will not expand further.

It is absolutely mandatory for us to ensure that Ukraine never, ever becomes a member of NATO”, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said.

Last year, President Putin wrote a lengthy article describing the Russians and Ukrainians as “one nation.”

He has described the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991 as the “disintegration of historical Russia” and considers that the current leaders of Ukraine are executing a “anti-russian project”.

President Putin has also argued that if Ukraine joins NATO, the alliance could try to take back Crimea.

Let’s imagine that Ukraine is a member of NATO and starts these military operations. Are we supposed to go to war with the NATO bloc? Has anyone thought of that? Apparently not”, Putin said.

Their other main demands are that NATO does not deploy”attack weapons near the borders of Russia” and to eliminate the forces and military infrastructure of the member states that joined the alliance since 1997.

That means Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries.

In reality, Russia wants NATO to return to its pre-1997 borders.

6.- What NATO says

The analysis recalls that NATO is a defensive alliance with a policy of open doors to new members, and its 30 member states are convinced that they will not give in.

Even if Ukraine wanted to join NATO, there is no prospect of this happening in the short term, as the German chancellor has made clear.

However, in the eyes of President Putin, the West promised in 1990 that NATO would not expand “not an inch east”, but he did it anyway.

However, that was before the collapse of the Soviet Union, so the promise made to the then Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev it only referred to East Germany in the context of a reunified Germany.

Gorbachev later said that “the issue of NATO expansion was never discussed” at that moment.

The United States and other NATO allies have made it clear that they have no plans to send combat troops to Ukraine itself, instead offering support in the form of advisers, weapons and field hospitals.

The Pentagon has placed 8,500 combat-ready troops on alert and is deploying an additional 3,000 troops to Germany, Romania and Poland.

Other NATO allies have strengthened their support on the eastern flank of the alliance.

Source: Gestion

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