COP26, challenges persist six years after the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement was a “bittersweet” pact, since “the climate change is still there, we have to prepare for a long-distance race ”, explained the CSIC researcher Fernando Valladares, in his review of the achievements and challenges of this agreement with a view to COP26 from Glasgow, Scotland, which kicks off on October 31st.

The Paris Agreement signed at COP21 in 2015 was “hopeful” because in the first place it was established that “each country should audit the Greenhouse Gases (GHG) it emits”, and on the other hand that the signatories committed to follow ” a schedule for reducing emissions to the extent of its possibilities ”.

However, “it was bittersweet” because although “it was possible to sign the objective of not exceeding a thermal rise of 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels”, the agreement “was not binding and did not contemplate legal repercussions for countries that did not fulfill their promises. ”, Laments Valladares.

In addition, the most polluting economy, China, “put itself in profile at COP25 in Madrid, and its president may not attend the Glasgow summit”, an absence that “expresses how a priority climate change is for its leaders ”.

Despite this, the scientist explains that “China currently has a verifiable and realistic calendar of neutrality for 2060” and although “it wants to make the transition to cleaner energies”, in parallel “it has invested significant sums in coal”, somewhat which will pay off in the coming years with a large emissions footprint ”.

Half a degree that makes a difference

Valladares emphasizes that “the legacy that Paris has left is a reference that everyone can understand, a temperature value that we must not exceed”: 1.5 degrees.

The CSIC researcher warns that “it may not be so obvious why a warming of more than 1.5 can be so critical”, but that threshold is a red line that “is very marked on national agendas”.

“The efforts that must be made internationally to stay at 1.5 degrees and not reach 2 are gigantic”, since a difference of half a degree implies “hundreds of millions of people affected by the rise in sea level and meteorological phenomena extremes ”, assures Valladares.

Carbon markets

One of the issues that remained in the pipeline of the last COP was “the point of the emission markets, which is quite stagnant”, although on the other hand the researcher affirms that “they only represent a small part of the solution”.

Emissions markets are “a way of transforming very carbon-intensive economies”, but “it is not the fastest or most efficient method for the net balance of emissions.”

Valladares assures that “what is truly useful to reduce the carbon footprint is an ambitious emission reduction policy” that responds to three unknowns: “Where, how and when”.

“The EU has proposed a 55% reduction in emissions compared to 1990, the United Kingdom leads proposals that exceed 70% and the United States also speaks of 55%”, but “in Spain we aim for 23% by 2030, which is clearly insufficient ”.

The citizen in the face of climate summits

The COPs “have their sights set on the medium and long term,” but “citizens have to pay bills,” says Valladares, who warns that the COPs serve to “schedule a series of urgent, uncomfortable and difficult actions that involve efforts.”

However, “these types of meetings do not serve to lower the electricity bill”, but to “establish plans so that all the people who live on the planet can continue living on it”, something that “is not very clear” because “We need four planets to continue living as we do.”

“It is not the old pretext of the planet that our children are going to inherit, but the planet we already have, with storms like Filomena or Gloria, mega-fires and unprecedented floods,” he says.

Valladares explains that “what ordinary citizens can do is understand the severity of the climate crisis” and “understand that the measures to solve it are going to be uncomfortable because consumption habits will have to be modified.”

“If all the signatory countries undertake to consolidate the good intentions of Paris, to carry out transparent audits and make an effort to reduce emissions, it would be a success, waiting much longer is not very realistic,” Valladares emphasizes.