Bloomberg editorial: return to normality after COVID will require alert

For the first time in a long time, there is good news about COVID-19. The omicron wave is reaching its highest point in the United States and in many states it is already receding. A respite from SARS-CoV-2 could well follow. And if new variants emerge eventually, it may be possible to live with them, that is, without the need to close businesses, wear masks all the time, and maintain social distancing.

A return to normalcy – that humble, but elusive goal – should be possible once COVID-19 hospitalizations fall from the thousands each day to much closer to the hundreds associated with a bad flu season. To ensure that lasts, careful monitoring, better data collection, and a national effort to prevent another crisis will be needed.

Five things in particular should be monitored:

1. Increases in the numbers of cases and deaths from COVID-19 anywhere in the world

By working together with the World Health Organization, the US should help other countries closely monitor outbreaks of COVID-19 (as well as outbreaks of other contagious respiratory diseases) and report data publicly and quickly, as do the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US.

2. Genomic changes in the coronavirus

To detect the arrival of new variants, the CDC must improve its efforts to analyze the genetic code of the virus found in people who test positive. The agency conducts such tests in certain areas, but has yet to develop a sufficiently large and geographically representative system, leaving the US dependent on other countries for news of emerging variants. . All patients who experience severe COVID-19 despite having been vaccinated should be tested for viruses.

3. Vaccine efficacy

Working together with vaccine manufacturers and independent scientists, the Food and Drug Administration and the CDC must monitor Americans for decreased immunity, especially if new variants emerge. All existing vaccines are expected to lose some of their potency over time. It is crucial to continually assess your effectiveness and have reinforcements available as needed.

4. Presence of COVID in wastewater

Measuring the level of coronavirus in public wastewater systems can provide early warning of waves of COVID and indicate when infections are waning. In 2020, CDC created the National Wastewater Monitoring System to work with state and local health departments to test wastewater. In the process, it must strengthen standards for wastewater testing and ensure that measurements from various systems are comparable.

5. Availability of hospital beds and staffing levels

Accurate and timely information from states about hospital capacity can also indicate when viral infections are on the rise. The CDC already compiles such data, but the statistics at the state level are not always up to date. Improving this system can help ensure that the nation’s hospitals are prepared to handle an outbreak.

All this information should be available in public databases. A clear idea of ​​“with how much COVID” Americans are willing to live. Ezekiel Emanuel of the University of Pennsylvania suggests setting a risk threshold for COVID, influenza, and other viruses together of about 35,000 hospitalizations and 3,000 deaths in a week.

Beyond those levels, or similar benchmarks, certain officials could consider reimposing mask orders and other restrictions to prevent health care systems from becoming overwhelmed.

Of course, COVID alone caused about four times as many hospitalizations and five times as many deaths as that last week. But the numbers are declining and, with any luck, the omicron wave will have receded by spring. It is time to look ahead with cautious optimism and put in place prudent measures to end the permanent crisis.