Elon Musk wants to turn humans into a multi-planetary species. Since its founding two decades ago, the main objective of the company of the South African billionaire SpaceX has been to colonize Mars.
Musk argues that we need a Plan B if the damage to Earth is irreversible from climate change, overpopulation, a third world war, or a possible mass extinction event. Although he still doesn’t know what will end up making planet Earth uninhabitable, Musk made his concerns public on Twitter: “population collapse.”
Contrary to popular belief, there may be some truth to your concern. The world population could decrease from the second half of the century, according to a study published by The Lancet magazine in 2020, in which researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) participated.
This means that there might not be enough people to carry out the plan to colonize Mars, something that the SpaceX CEO himself acknowledged on Twitter: “If there aren’t enough people for Earth, then there definitely won’t be enough for Mars.”
The IHME suggests that in 2064 the world population will peak at 9.73 billion people, but which will suffer a decline of almost one billion by the end of the century. The study shows a very different scenario than that of the United Nations (UN), in which a constant increase in the population is estimated up to about 11,000 million in 2100. Musk described the UN figures as “true nonsense” in the same Tweet.
How is this decrease explained?
Women are central to these estimates. The population decline is mainly attributed to the decrease in the birth rate, that is, women have fewer children. The researchers point out that these changes will be due to better and easier access to education and contraceptive methods.
wage disparity
But why does this happen? According to a study by the Danish National Bureau of Economic Research conducted in 2018, Women’s earnings dropped sharply after giving birth, while men’s stayed the same.
Some countries have tried to address these challenges with incentive programs such as paid maternity leave, job protection or financial support. The authors reckon this has been seen in Sweden, which increased its birth rates from 1.5 in the late 1990s to 1.9 in 2019.
Experts are also concerned that the close relationship between the decline in the birth rate and women’s increased access to sex education and contraceptives could pose a real threat to their freedoms and rights.
Instead of supporting those who are mothers, some countries might instead ban or restrict access to reproductive health services to prevent population decline, as seen in Romania and the Soviet Union, which they used restrictions and prohibitions to try to increase birth rates.
Different destinations by region
Although Musk might not seem to like a less populated world, it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. IHME researchers believe that it would be a relief for the environment because people would use fewer resources and generate fewer carbon emissions. However, while population decline could benefit the planet, it is not a solution to climate change, experts said.
Some countries like Japan, Spain and Ukraine could see their population shrink by up to half by 2100. China is expected to drop from its current 1.4 billion population to about 700 million, despite the end of the one-child policy in 2015. But not all countries would share the same fate. Africa and the Middle East were the only regions expected to have more populations.
The countries of Western Europe will reach their maximum population in 2040. In the case of Germany, the population would reach 85 million inhabitants in 2035, but it would decrease less severely to about 60 million in 2100.
These Changes in the Earth’s population will have important economic consequences, which will imply severe fiscal challenges to public health and pension programs. In this sense, immigration could help: the study mentions that countries that manage to maintain their working population through migration, such as Canada, Australia and the United States, could prosper. (I)
Source: Eluniverso
Paul is a talented author and journalist with a passion for entertainment and general news. He currently works as a writer at the 247 News Agency, where he has established herself as a respected voice in the industry.
