The tense situation between Russia Y Ukraine it makes foresee a crisis that increases the threats of a possible armed conflict that would involve other nations.
On the one hand, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, consider to Ukraine as part of his nation, so he does not rule out a possible invasion; likewise, it requires it to be stated in writing that said country will not be part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (OTAN).
However, the ruler of EE.UU., Joe Biden, assures that the Russian president is trying to show his strength and warns of “unprecedented sanctions” if it manages to enter Ukrainian soil.
Faced with threats of this magnitude, it is necessary to know what is at the bottom of this situation and how likely the threats of invasion and war are.
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Why is Russia interested in Ukraine?
Like Russia, Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union (USSR), during its existence between 1922 and 1991. After the fall of the USSR, the Ukrainian government began a rapprochement with the European Union and the United States.
However, within Ukraine there are still divisions between those who seek to be part of Western Europe and those who want closer ties with Russia.
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War in Donbas
The origin of the tensions lies in eastern Ukraine, Donbas, where a war broke out in 2014 between the Ukrainian Army and pro-Russian separatists supported by Moscow. During that conflict, the pro-Russian president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, was overthrown.
A month after the start of hostilities in eastern Ukraine, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, although the international community continues to consider the peninsula under Ukrainian sovereignty.
The conflict, which, according to the UN, has caused more than 14,000 deaths on both sides – both military and civilian – is now in a frozen state in the absence of compliance with the Minsk peace agreements, signed in 2015.
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Russia and Ukraine
The two countries share a thousand-year history that dates back to the so-called Kievan Rus, a principality that existed from the 9th to the 13th centuries.
In a text published in July, President Vladimir Putin stated that “Russians and Ukrainians are one nation” that belongs to “the same historical and spiritual space”.
In his annual press conference, he claimed that Ukraine had been “created by Lenin” in the early years of the Soviet Union, a way of denying the specificities of this nation, which he presented as artificial.
Famine
Among the main historical facts in dispute between Russia and Ukraine is the “Holodomor”, the great famine that killed several million people in 1932 and 1933 in Ukraine.
Both Kiev and historians describe this tragedy as a “genocide” orchestrated by Stalin against the Ukrainian people who resisted the collectivization of the land.
But Moscow and other historians reject this characterization, placing the events in the broader context of famines that also claimed many victims in Central Asia and Russia.
This controversy is unlikely to abate because the Kremlin, which espouses a glorified view of Russian history, tries to downplay Stalinist crimes.
What Vladimir Putin does not want
The Russian president refuses Ukraine to join NATO, as he believes the alliance is expanding to levels that threaten the country’s existence. Furthermore, as the GDA points out, an attack against one is an attack against all, and the response is joint.
Russia demands a pact from the US
Relations between Russia and the US are now at a “critical and dangerous” point, says Moscow.
To prevent a further deterioration of the situation, Russia demanded security guarantees from Washington and NATO, which provide, first of all, for a veto on the expansion of the Alliance towards the Russian borders and the cessation of its activities in the former Soviet republics. , which Moscow sees as its area of influence.
In this sense, Moscow expects from NATO a written document with its position on the future security architecture in Europe, which must include guarantees that the former Soviet Ukraine and Georgia will never join the Alliance, despite their desire to do so.
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Moscow denies plans to attack
Russia denies plans to attack or invade Ukraine despite a substantial troop buildup on the border with the neighboring country.
According Moscow, the movement of military units within the Russian borders is the sovereign right of the country, which does not concern other states.
President Vladimir Putin recently said that Russia has no aggressive plans, but will react “toughly” in the event of unfriendly measures by Western countries, referring to NATO’s possible refusal to give up its military activities in Eastern Europe. “They are at our door. (…) We have nowhere to retire”, said the head of the Kremlin.
This week, NATO decided to once again lend a hand to Russia to reduce tensions caused by the deployment of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, but “prepared for the worst”, the secretary general of the transatlantic alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, said on Wednesday.
The organization, which presented on Wednesday its response to Russia’s demands on regional security, seeks “a path of dialogue” to find one “political solution” to the crisis, Stoltenberg said.
With information from EFE and AFP
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