China must seek to live with COVID, not defeat it

More than two years after the start of the pandemic COVID-19, China it is the only one of the major countries that continues with a zero-tolerance strategy, seeking to extinguish outbreaks as soon as individual cases emerge. That policy seems increasingly untenable. Chinese leaders should now prepare for a change of course.

The appearance of the variant omicron Highly communicable disease tests the government’s approach. Local authorities have had to adopt strict measures to control the outbreaks: closing entire cities, limiting travel and mass testing millions of people. Some 20 million Chinese were subject to some form of lockdown this month. Tianjin, one of the world’s largest ports, recently tested its entire population for COVID, disrupting business and causing some foreign-owned factories to suspend operations.

However, ómicron has reached all of China’s biggest cities, including Beijing, which will host the Winter Olympics in a few weeks. The seven-day moving averages have reached highs not seen since March 2020. Given how quickly this variant spreads, the chances of China maintaining a low number of cases are slim.

Over time, too, the costs of continuing the fight will grow dangerously high. The patience of the population is wearing thin. After at least two deaths and two miscarriages were blamed on excessive lockdown measures in the city of Xi’an, anger erupted online against local authorities. Uncertainty and travel restrictions ahead of the Lunar New Year festivities have weighed on consumer confidence, contributing to a slowdown in growth. While the impact of factory closures remains limited and ports continue to operate, more widespread closures would affect supply chains and heighten global concerns about inflation.

Against this background, the authorities must weigh the costs of relaxing the state of alert. Locally manufactured vaccines have been shown to be less effective against COVID-19 than Western ones. It remains to be seen how well they will hold up against the omicron variant. Even if they prevent serious illness, a rapid wave of infections could put a huge strain on the health care system. China has just 2.7 nurses per 1,000 people, compared to 12.7 in Japan and 15.7 in the United States.

More intangiblely, the Chinese Communist Party has left much of its credibility in the hands of the success of its response to the pandemic, which officials frequently contrast with devastating outbreaks in the West. The rising case count could quickly undermine this narrative.

The authorities should use this time to rethink their entire approach to the virus. The first priority should be protecting essential workers and vulnerable populations with more effective enforcement. Homegrown mRNA vaccines are still in the testing phase and results may not be available for months. Meanwhile, Pfizer Inc.’s Chinese partner has been waiting for approval to distribute an mRNA vaccine since last summer. This is no time for pride: Approving the Western-made vaccine would help bridge the gap until Chinese mRNA vaccines can be shown to be safe and effective.

At the same time, top officials should redirect the energy of their subordinates. Punishing local authorities for not promptly eradicating small outbreaks will be increasingly unproductive. Instead, they should be tasked with building the capacity of hospitals and corresponding staff, advancing less disruptive testing and quarantine protocols, and improving resiliency in their jurisdictions.

In part, this means changing the way the Chinese population at large views the threat of COVID-19. Instead of panicking over each new case, public health officials should emphasize that it’s important to keep the risks in perspective. Similarly, top leaders must avoid exaggerating the effectiveness of their policies or the blunders of their rivals in the West. Such boasts only inflate expectations and deepen fears about the possibility of restrictions being eased. For all its success so far, China can still learn what the rest of the world has already learned from this fight against COVID-19: have a little humility.