Desperately waiting to go from pandemic to endemic

A growing number of authorities have uttered the word “endemic” more frequently in recent weeks, and internet searches for the term have skyrocketed.

It is not only governments that hope that 2022 will be the year in which the COVID-19 can finally take a backseat in public discourse. People are tired and desperate to escape, and there is optimism in the air that life could return to normal soon.

Given the omicron It seems less malevolent than the previous variants, although it spreads faster, there is more and more talk that it will soon be endemic. Saying “endemic” would mean that the disease is still circulating, but at a lower and more predictable rate, and with fewer people hospitalized.

It is inevitable that governments will eventually need to consider COVID as one of many manageable public health challenges. But health experts urge caution, saying there is too much uncertainty about how the virus will evolve, how much immunity society has built up and the potential harm if people stop taking care of themselves.

In addition, endemic diseases can also cause a lot of damage. Tuberculosis, which is second only to COVID among the world’s top infectious killers, caused about 1.5 million deaths in 2020.

At least there is reason to hope that they will loosen control. The world has more tools than ever before, from rapid tests to the ability to update and mass produce vaccines, as well as rising levels of immunity through inoculation and previous episodes of COVID. While antibodies may slow down or even fail to stop infections of new variants, the immune system’s other important weapon, T cells, appears robust enough to prevent serious illness for most people.

It is important to remember that despite the global push for the vaccine, now approaching 10 billion doses administered, there are huge gaps. That includes much of Africa due to supply constraints, but also in the Western world, where millions choose not to get vaccinated.

People infected with omicron may not develop much immunity to what is to come. The most impactful delta variant could yet re-emerge or combine with omicron to create a new hybrid.

Even without an official declaration lowering the level of the health emergency, more governments may soon start behaving as if that were the case, relaxing social restrictions or easing travel restrictions. While China’s zero-Covid policy is an outlier, most countries are willing to step back from intrusive measures, with many citing low recent deaths relative to previous waves.

As governments ease measures, the responsibility will fall more and more on each person, through tests, the use of masks and the voluntary limitation of social interactions.