New wave of COVID takes a new look at emerging economies

Developing nations that were hit hard by previous waves of COVID-19 – Brazil, India, Indonesia, among others – are only now facing the highly contagious omicron variant that has been sweeping Europe and North America for weeks. With the advantage of being able to observe its evolution in other places, some countries are modifying policies so as not to eliminate the virus, but to live with it.

In a way, the idea is not new. In 2020, when the pandemic began, the leaders of Mexico Y Brazil They rejected lockdowns and quarantines, saying the damage they would bring outweighed the risk of illness and death that the coronavirus threatened.

They were widely condemned for their way of thinking. But today, with large percentages of its populations vaccinated, a better understanding of the cost of locks, and the relatively mild nature of omicron, its old approach is gaining new currency in emerging economies around the world.

In ThailandPrevious waves of the virus caused strict restrictions that stifled the vital tourism industry, but this time, a lockdown, even partial, was out of the question.

Instead, in September, the government shifted its general approach to one it considers more practical: treating COVID as endemic by 2022, said the director general of the Department of Disease Control in Bangkok. That is a radical change with respect to the strategy of the objective “zero COVID”Which was adopted in 2020.

Indonesia was one of the most affected countries during the spread of the delta variant in Asia, but the government recently shortened the mandatory quarantine period for incoming travelers and life in the most populous country in Southeast Asia has continued normally, and offices , restaurants, gyms, places of worship and public transportation are operating with even greater capacity.

Something similar happens in the largest nation in Latin America. After seeing that Western countries reduced their quarantine times, the Minister of Health of Brazil he followed suit, recommending a reduction from 10 to seven days for asymptomatic patients on Monday. Life there feels relatively normal and just wearing a mask can do just about anything.

In Europe, a similar trend has started. On Monday, the President of the Government of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, became the first leader of a major European country to call on the European Union to discuss the possibility of treating COVID-19 as an endemic disease like the flu.

Although the number of new cases in Argentina It is at a record level, intensive care unit occupancy and deaths remain low. Similarly, in Israel, the number of people “seriously ill”On January 4 it was 125, up from a peak of almost 1,200 a year ago.

The nation has begun vaccinating people over 60 with a fourth dose, the first country in the world to do so. And in IndiaWhere the immunization rate is around 45%, antibody research suggests that the majority of the population has already had COVID, which experts believe could lessen the impact of the next wave.

Even when deaths are low, the burden on hospitals and health systems can still be high, in part because the latest wave delays treatment for other illnesses and operations. “While the omicron results in terms of deaths are welcome, there is significant evidence to suggest that we are not out of the woods yet.” and that “the number of hospitalizations could still put pressure on health systems“, He said Tom Moultrie, a professor of demography at the University of Cape Town who analyzes data on the virus in South Africa.

However, the relatively weak impact of this variant is leading countries to revise their orientation. “For now, if governments feel they can cope with rising hospitalizations, easing measures may be appropriate.“, He said.

While COVID has challenged the world economically, emerging markets, which have large sections of informal workers with poor living conditions, were hit the hardest by lockdowns and closures.

This week, the World Bank cut its global gross domestic product growth forecast from 4.3% to 4.1% and reported that while advanced economies are on track to approach pre-pandemic production by 2023, emerging economies and in development they will continue to lag behind.

Pandemic fatigue is an additional factor for the shift in focus. Crowded New Year’s parties and maskless were held across Brazil, and in many places little political capital remains for another lockdown. “Here, people live in an atmosphere as if COVID has already passed”Said Atila Iamarino, a biologist with studies at the University of São Paulo and Yale who specializes in virology. “They are going out, having parties, thinking about the carnival”.

The message from the federal government in Mexico has been to continue business as usual. The Undersecretary of Health said this wave will help the nation achieve herd immunity faster.

The president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who just announced that he was infected with COVID for the second time, pointed out that omicron does not appear to lead to a serious illness. Furthermore, the vaccination rate in Mexico City is remarkable: 99% of adults. So despite the almost historic increase in cases, the country has not imposed restrictions of any kind.

Chile, which imposed one of the most draconian quarantines and also suffered one of the worst death rates, has not even started a debate on re-imposing restrictions. But it may not be necessary: ​​87% of the country have received two doses and 58% have received a booster shot. The country is now launching a campaign to administer a second booster, and the third – a fifth dose – will likely be given starting mid-year.

There are some emerging economies that choose to face the new wave with heavy restrictions.

Lima and Delhi are under curfew. In China, millions are confined and border restrictions are expected to last all year. Morocco has banned all international travel and Malaysia will suspend travel permits for Muslim pilgrims heading to Mecca for Umrah this month. And Vietnam’s prime minister ordered local officials to ban public gatherings, especially Lunar New Year celebrations.

Some countries have had less effective results with vaccines than others, making political decisions more complicated. In India, where a growing wave of infections appears to be on the verge of setting records and the hospital system is underfunded to limit it, adolescents are just beginning to receive doses of vaccines and children are not immunized at all.

Misinformation and doubts about vaccines remain persistent problems: in Philippines, a survey conducted in 2021 found that 68% of the population were unsure or unwilling to get vaccinated. And, in December, Russia Y Vietnam They came near the bottom of a Bloomberg COVID resilience ranking that measures virus containment, quality of healthcare, and vaccination coverage in the 53 largest economies.

It is the absence of public parties that has really started to upset Brazilians, who have gone almost two years without a carnival celebration. Local leaders simply put an end to those hopes: Last week, the street carnival was canceled, first in Rio de Janeiro and then across the country.

“The street carnival, by its very nature, makes it impossible to exercise any type of inspection”Said the mayor of Rio in a webcast.

Brazil’s health minister announced this week that omicron is now the predominant variant. The absence of generalized restrictions in a country that was the epicenter of the virus continues to worry some specialists. “The lack of a national policy on the use of masks, easily accessible home tests, or mobility restrictions“Said biologist Iamarino,”they leave Brazil ready for their cases to blow up right now”.